🧨 Macro Doom is Back on The Menu!

🗞 Market commentary.

GM! It’s lesson day Tuesday.

What a fun weekend we had, right? Well, perhaps only for those who successfully played around the multiple hacks that occurred. One such event was the Milady treasury hack, which led to extreme selling pressure on Saturday. The outcome? Interestingly enough, these provenance NFTs (explained below) are now at the same prices as before the hack.

It feels like the next round of drama is right around the corner, though, as we’re closing in on the good old FOMC. What’s Jerome Powell cooking up this time? For now, we understand that the market is already bracing for exactly three rate hikes this year. However, the uncertainty of the current downturn is driven by last week's heated macroeconomic data, especially the PPI.

The uncertainty carried over into crypto markets, and the short-term warnings we covered last week are now coming to fruition. As long as Bitcoin hovers above 52,000 and isn’t closing multiple daily candles under this level, it’s just that, a short-term pullback, not a macro reversal. 

Not to worry, though, certain markets like the Bitcoin Ordinals space (about which we’ve been ranting since last year) are unfazed, as over the weekend, we saw the NodeMonkes collection flip Bored Ape Yacht Club in floor value. The beginning of a new era? Might be.

📊 Luke’s Chart of the Day

TIA/USDT - Pullback Acquired

Schizo price action recently (see inset chart) has suggested to me that somebody wants $TIA lower before higher, and I’ve been looking for a 40% pullback (good bull market rule of thumb) and today the market gods blessed us with a 45% off-the-highs gift wrapped entry which I have been scooping. Fib extensions plotted from the beginning of the runup give us a bull target of $80 and a base case target of $42 - we need to get here ideally pre-vesting which is 30 October this year.

🔥 Degen corner.

Provenance Coins

Today, I simply have to follow up on the Provenance Coins thesis presented by the legendary path.eth, especially after the recent sale of the Dog WIF hat photo that GCR bought for 1,210 ETH ($4.3m). This thesis underscores many things we’ve witnessed in this market not only recently but since 2021.

Everyone who’s in crypto seriously and is not a tourist understands that we are now living through the early days of the birth of a new type of internet, a global connection of value, information, memes… a new network and home for not only us but all the young ones joining right after (which might be you right now).

Memecoins, in particular, are a force to be reckoned with. Just look at Doge and Shiba Inu. People who held these things since the early days are still, even after a brutal bear market, in massive profits. What screams provenance more than the fact that these two memes are one of the most valuable cryptocurrencies worldwide, right now, still, to this day?

This right here, from an internet native, artistic/meme point of view, is a legitimate investment thesis – but only if you bet on the fact that we, as crypto natives, are slowly but surely taking over the whole internet and everything in it, including trends, styles, designs, memes… Most importantly, we’re writing the neo-history.

Those of you spending time daily on crypto Twitter, ask yourselves, what comes to your mind instantly, as a provenance meme or provenance collection of this bull run? Well, there you have it. If we win, these things become immortal, historical parts of our era.

A lesson in there.

👀 DeFi insights.

The important bits.

• Kodiak (Berachain) - Partners with Dopex (now Stryke) - read

• Smilee Finance (DeFi) - Live on Arbitrum mainnet - read

• Io.net (Cloud Computing) - Reached 89,000 active nodes - read

• Y2K (DeFi) - Opens USDe markets - read

• Skillful AI (AI) - New features are coming to AI Hub - read

• Ether.Fi (LRT) - Airdrop claims are live - read

• CORE DAO (Bitcoin EVM) - Glyph to become first CORE AMM - read

• Mozaic (DeFi, AI) - Security incident post-mortem - read

• Token Mill (DeFi) - Coming soon on Trader Joe - read

📰 DeFi news.

Even more important bits.

• Holyheld’s card to include Berachain support - read

• Base network sees surge in transactions and users - read

• Bitcoin surpasses gold in investor portfolio allocation - read

• Harvard Business School interest in crypto shows the bull just began - read

• USA leads total cryptocurrency gains worldwide - read

🫠 ICYMI.

Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.

What is DeSci? Ponzi or New Paradigm?

Research

We know that big Brian Armstrong is a fan, but what's the deal with DeSci?

Read More →

🐥 Tweet of the day.

To save you doom scrolling.

Thank God Jumper Exchange, I was scared for a bit. Funds are safu.

🦍 And finally…

Market psychology is one of the most important aspects of this game. This point made by our friend Madz is particularly important: if you are a young and aspiring contrarian, it’s good to think about when to be a contrarian and when, on the other hand, join the herd.

Right now, we’re in a market period similar to 2020, right after the bear market. Yes, crypto natives are rejoicing and bathing in gains, but they were here every day, preparing for the turnaround. What would be very problematic is if not even these people were making money. 

But, as Madz says, when even Aunty Dorothy makes a bank on a meme, you need to look deep into your eyes and question who’ll it be that makes money in the end because the party end is inevitably coming, along with the hangover.