⏳ T-4 To Bitcoin Halving

🗞 Market commentary.

GM to everyone who still gambles through the times of war.

So, there we have it: the downside we've discussed in our ongoing market commentary for the past three weeks has materialized. Even though the overall bull run is absolutely intact, our loyal readers were prepared for this particular altcoin nuke, especially since March 28, when we noted the legend Pentoshi, who mentioned this exact retrace in the TOTAL 3 chart, meaning the altcoin market.

There's a big lesson here—it was always in the charts. Everyone thinks it’s the war, the news, the FUD, and so on. Meanwhile, the charts knew this was coming all along. Interesting, isn’t it? Watch for this to happen again in the future.

So, what now? The possibility of a downside is still on, especially for this week, as mentioned in today’s analysis from Eric Krown. However, the vast majority of this move is most likely over. The line in the sand that we keep an eye on is the $60-61K level for Bitcoin, under which we do not want to see any closes, especially weekly ones. 

This level also aligns perfectly with the new production cost price, which will teleport to exactly $60,000 in 5 days—the halving date. The most important message of all this is that these areas are most likely opportunities. The bull run will simply keep bulling, whether we see a prolonged consolidation or an even deeper retrace or not.

Except for more charts like the weakening of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, there are also obvious fundamental reasons for the downside. After a while, crypto funds recorded $126M total outflows, assisted by the typical Grayscale dumps totaling -$115.13M just yesterday, adding fuel to the already jittery market.

📊 Luke’s Chart of the Day

ONDOUSD 1D Coinbase

$ONDO is one of the more resilient charts out there, with huge volume and rapid buyback on the initial weekend dump. Followed by rejection at the highs on Monday, suggesting we will get some consolidation at and maybe below support before we see continuation. 

The relative strength shown here indicates this is a great RWA play to accumulate. I will look to buy the purple box—ideally slowly, as it’s unclear right now if we will spend a week or longer down here. As Zoomer likes to say, 1 Ondo = 1 Condo. I'm not sure about his $APT apartment, though. At this point, it could be quite a small one.

As always, NFA, and please do your own research!

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

🔥 Degen corner.

Rune Pre-play

A few weeks ago, when we explained the importance of the upcoming Runes Protocol (here) and the way it enables complete shitcoin mania to take place right on the mother chain, there was nowhere near the current amount of people positioned in this play. Especially at PUPS, the pre-play is in its mature stages.

Even though it’s highly possible that we will see a however-long sell-the-news event after the halving, and thus Runes' release (we're already seeing this in PUPS, for example), this narrative is far from over.

Let’s quickly check up on a few more projects in preparation for the main season:

An all-in tool for Runes, including Runescan, Runemint, and a launchpad.

The RUNI token can be obtained by holding Ape Odyssey NFTs.

Ordiswap aims to become a leading AMM for Bitcoin, including offering to become an LP and earn yield. Once Runes are released, the remaining functions of Ordiswap, like earning yield, should also be.

Another BTC-native AMM competitor. No token so far.

Yet another DEX is made from Bitcoin, this time dubbed a “real-yield” one. As it’s still being prepared, you can join the waitlist for this one.

Motoswap is—you nailed it—another AMM for Bitcoin L1. This time, it is dubbed the literal Uniswap, but on Bitcoin. The MOTO token is not out yet.

A long-standing player in the Bitcoin space. What’s interesting currently, is the ongoing point campaign in preparation for Runes release. To earn points, it’s possible to deposit wBTC, USDT, USDC, and DAI.

👀 DeFi insights.

The important bits.

• AIOZ (L1, DePIN) - Presents the perfect W3IPFS NFT solution - read

• Persistence One (LSTs) - stkATOM now available on Inter Protocol - read

• Smilee (DeFi) - Lists $FLY for impermanent gain trading - read

• Perennial (DeFi) - Partners with Truflation - read

• Karak (LRT) - Integrates Pendle - read

• Io.net (GPU aggregator) - Provides 90% cheaper GPU clusters - read

• Uniquely (NFC technology) - Partners with Mog Coin - read

📰 DeFi news.

Even more important bits.

• Solana developers issued transaction fix - read

• Hong Kong approves first batch of spot bitcoin, ether ETFs - read

• GCR comes back and bull posts - read

• Vitalik says privacy is normal using Railgun privacy wallet - read

• Grayscale's GBTC down 50% in bitcoin holdings since spot ETFs launch - read

• OKX launches new Layer 2 on mainnet - read

• Offchain Labs releases Arbitrum BOLD on testnet - read

• Potential movement on stablecoinlegislation in the US - read

🫠 ICYMI.

Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.

IntentX: The Ascension Is Now Underway

Research

If you thought we were done with IntentX, you were mistaken. There's a ton of stuff being shipped at the minute. Just check the main account

It's soon to be deployed on Mantle, and that deployment will be paired with the platform's full launch. So TGE is coming soon(tm)…

Read More →

🐥 Tweet of the day.

To save you doom scrolling.

If you’re feeling down, remember that Su Zhu just round-tripped $13M…

🦍 And finally…

Patience is the name of the game. Experienced, multi-cycle traders know very well how brutal bull market corrections can be. The only and absolute goal of these corrections is to convince everyone the bull market is over. The all-around exuberance and feeling of invincibility we saw on the timeline during the past month needed to be punished; the market always takes back most of the gains.

Patience, the bull market is intact (IMO, DYOR and all that).