Hormuz sitch is back to square one with the Orange Man saying “he’s done with those evil people” and that ceasefire is off, rockets are flying, oil is pumping, and Bitcoin… still above $60K. GM.
Not only have we got BTC still firmly above sixty keks, but we’re also finally seeing nice ETF inflows after some of the most brutal outflow weeks lately. Good signs.
Looking at our dear crypto markets from the top, it’s quite easily recognizable that at least the vast majority of price capitulation is behind us (last few dumps or news-driven wicks aside). The thing is, as Pentoshi eloquently describes here, it is now mainly the question of time-capitulation and how long it will take. Historically, there's a very low chance we see things V-reverse straight up and a new bull starts in a blink. Patience and eyes on the prize.
Speaking of time capitulations, the current bear-phase chop-solidification is starting to look eerily similar to those absolute bottoms in 2022, as depicted here. Nevertheless, it’s worth remembering that even once BTC jumped higher after the FTX drama subsided, there were quite long, multi-month chops ahead, still.
I consider the described market periods the best to leverage for creating a good strategy based on solid research and forward-looking thinking; at least, that’s how I approach them. Research and prepare when it’s boring; actively manage positioning when action and volatility are high again.
In other news, after we mentioned the Robinhood Chain Guide in our previous release, it seems there were some proper, I mean 1000% plus type runners on this chain. Good old fresh chain onchain shenanigans, don’t forget to take profits. Even the CEO is now pushing memes as a narrative for their new eco; everyone knows green dildos are the best onboarding strategy.
Side note here, well at least Ethereum feels like a side note for now, it’s interesting to see how Tom Lee becomes the endless dip buying chad, while Saylor became the top blaster/bottom seller. Perhaps these are the signs of a possible, now almost ancient, myth-like theory that ETH/BTC could start rising again? Check out this BitFinex whale chart as an example; these guys used to be a pretty good indicator.
Anyways, Tom Lee’s Bitmine now has around 5% of the ETH supply under their belt, and they continue to simply dip-blast (despite still being billions of $ in losses).
Lastly, it seems the SEC is cooking up a new crypto-focused event to provide more clarity for our industry, so let’s see what comes of it.
Honestly, I enjoy this market phase. It’s a blend of FUD, bottoming out vibes, research, and more and more hope that we will, actually, come out on the greener end. I bullieve.
Oh, and price levels for BTC to watch are still relevant from the last episodes, simply jump back to these and check where we stand.
👇 And if you haven’t yet, hit subscribe below 👇
The important bits.
Swap Royale’s new trailer video explain how it’s planning to onboard the next wave of retail, watch here
Squid’s QUID allocations are now available, here’s everything you need to know
Surf AI offers free PRO plans for commenters on this X post, join here
RWA perp markets on Nado are now 24/7, read here
Summerfi says the $6M exploit came from manipulating the NAV/share price of two USDC vaults, read here
MEGA emissions have been reduced by 67% on Aave, read here
PoL Next is now live on Berachain mainnet, read the explainer here
Harbor TIDE allocations for FXN holders and boosters are out, read here
Variational: “Introducing Swaps: An Instrument Designed to Bring TradFi On-Chain”, read here
Nest Exchange is hiring a Capital Relations Lead, read here
Aerodrome presents AER Engine: emissions now tied to protocol revenue, read more
Next big ZEC upgrade Tychon explained by Gaz, watch here
Even more important bits.
Russia is making a massive pivot on crypto. The Financial Market Committee has cleared the final version of its crypto bill, here are the points
Privy is launching global fiat onramps, announcement here
Saylor explains the most misunderstood MSTR mechanics - the BTC breakeven APR, read here
Vanguard (AUM= $10+ Trillion) is looking for a head of digital assets for first time, read here
Binance announces BTC yield income for holding, read here
BonkDAO was the target of a malicious governance proposal resulting in an estimated $20M worth of BONK tokens being drained, read more
Kalshi/Polymarket music market manipulation: 500K fake streams settle a $3M market, read here
Charts and stats of the day.
Over $1,6M in fees on Hyperliquid today, chart here
Maple's syrupUSDC (5.02%) and syrupUSDT (3.99%) rank 1st and 2nd in case of APY, read here
Comprehensive revenue tracking is live at HLEco, check it out
fomo user base is rapidly expanding, chart here
The Dow Jones just hit 53,000 for the first time in history, chart here
Robinhood Chain crossed $250M+ in Uniswap Protocol volume, read here
Weekly HYPE ETF flows are rising higher, read here
Fund Managers are now sitting on the lowest cash allocation in history, read here
40% of Altcoins Are Trading Around Their All-Time Low, chart here
Lastly, our daily Telegram bulletin is back! Join in right here and stay on top of everything, every day.
SDF x WC26: 8 Teams Left
The market is not the only thing driving emotions high at the moment; our blood sugar levels are spiking due to the World Cup.
Argentina’s triumph over the Pharaohs of Egypt is probably the most entertaining game of the tournament so far, even more so for those with Enzo Fernández on their squad.
We are down to the last 8, and we already know the fixtures, so how about we look into some of the players in favourable fixtures that might do your SDF picks some real good.
The Last Eight:
Ørjan Nyland (Norway vs England)
The Norwegian keeper has been one of the standouts of the knockout stage. He put in a man-of-the-match level performance against Brazil. Against an England side that likes to throw bodies forward, Nyland could rack up saves, bonus points, and maybe even a clean sheet if Norway’s organised defence holds firm.
Enzo Fernández (Argentina)
Fresh off scoring the dramatic winner vs Egypt and already a fantasy darling. Argentina are clear favourites against Switzerland. We expect Enzo to pull the strings in midfield and pick up another assist or two. If he’s in your squad, you’re already smiling.
Fabian Ruiz (Spain vs Belgium)
Often overshadowed by Yamal, Pedri and the rest of Spain’s flair players, Ruiz is the steady engine in midfield. He offers control, progressive passing, and pops up with the occasional goal or assist. Spain are strong favourites against Belgium.
Erling Haaland (Norway vs England)
The man is on fire. A brace against Brazil in the last 16 is mental. Norway have serious momentum and face an England side that can be opened up. Haaland vs a potentially high line? Ouu lala
Lucas Digne (France vs Morocco)
France have kept things tight at the back, and Digne offers attacking threat from the left while being one of the cheaper, more under-owned French assets. Clean sheet potential plus the occasional assist or bonus makes him a sneaky wild card, especially if you want exposure to the tournament favourites without paying premium prices for Mbappé or the big mids.
That’s all for the scout picks for the Quarter finals. Make sure to take your Sport.fun players off your squad and into your team picks to be eligible for points.
Best of luck to all my SDF enjoyooors.
Inside the $4.3 Billion Bet on Orbital Logistics
Thank you all!
The AI news & updates.
Anthropic plans to lease a 16-story building in Manhattan's Hudson Square, read here
Robinhood agentic options trading live for all US customers, read here
Heurist + Open USD partner for agentic payments, read more
Claude Cowork is coming to mobile and web, read here
Claude is extending access to Claude Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 12, read here
SpaceX is now added to the Nasdaq 100, read here
US states seek $1.4 trillion in penalties from Meta for allegedly designing its social media platforms to be addicting, read here
The Bank of England warns that rapid advances in frontier AI are increasing financial stability risks, read here
Galaxy has completed Phase I of its Helios AI data center campus in West Texas, read here
GPT-5.6 Sol, plus Terra and Luna, launches tomorrow, read here
xAI rebrands to SpaceXAI, read here
Anthropic signs $19B data center lease with TeraWulf, read here
MIRA: Kyutai + Epic Games ship a playable AI-native Rocket League with no game engine, read here
AI Charts and stats of the day.
Samsung hits a record 89.4 trillion won ($58B) quarterly profit on the AI chip boom, chart here
US Treasury prepared an internal AI bubble warning, read here
Chinese firms plan to shift ~46% of AI chip budgets to domestic silicon, up from 30%, read here
The AI tutorials of the day.
AI Articles of the day.
“CHINA BUILT A PARALLEL AI SYSTEM. HERE IS HOW TO TRADE IT.” New article by TrueNorth here
OpenAI's o3 model helped diagnose 18 previously unsolvable rare pediatric diseases, read here
Cambridge's AI-designed "universal" coronavirus vaccine clears first human trial, read here
Is to use Plasma One if you’re a flight enjoyer - up to 10% back on every flight.
Create Plasma One card here, start using crypto, done. Personally ready to make this my new habit.
Right on Larry, message of the day: If you buy the dips, you will benefit.
If this was useful, forward it to one person sitting on the sidelines right now. That's how this thing grows. MUCH appreciated.
Hix0n 🫡
