❗ Is Binance in Double Trouble?

PLUS, what is the best approach to Bitcoin self-custody?

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A few hours back, Binance announced the spot listing of a low-cap Neiro meme coin — First Neiro on Ethereum. This community-managed asset claims to be “the heir apparent to DOGE.”

Its market cap blew up in no time and the asset is already 685% up on the daily timeframe.

While stalwarts like Justin Sun seem to be impressed with this dog’s “swag,” others are upset with the outright red-flag listing by crypto’s “new dumping ground.”  

Instead of flashing a 4 like CZ, He Yi, the Co-founder of Binance explained that the exchange has “no intention” to guide the trend towards memes.” The team merely found some projects with low FDV and “dispersed coin holdings to test.”

As though coming under the CT’s scrutiny was not enough, Binance is yet again on the SEC’s radar. Gensler and co. have ramped up scrutiny on the exchange’s token listing and trading process in a recently proposed amended complaint. 

They say, “When it rains, it pours!” This especially seems to be true in Binance’s case.  

Meanwhile, there is good news from the Bitcoin accumulators’ camp.

El Salvador’s President Bukele has announced that El Salvador will no longer borrow external debt to finance its budget, thanks to Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, Saylor’s company — which announced the acquisition of 11,931 BTC for an additional $786 million last week  — now holds about 245,000 BTC. For context, that is more than the amount of coins held by the Grayscale's GBTC and Fidelity's FBTC, two of the largest Bitcoin ETFs.

Hugeeeee!

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Fedwatch Target Rate Probabilities

On Wednesday, we have the FOMC and another Powell presser where rate cuts will be announced. While the Fed Chair himself hinted at the possibility of a cut recently, question marks surrounding the extent of reduction still linger.

25 bps or 50? Until Thursday last week, the broad consensus was 25 bps. That certainty flipped to uncertainty with an article by Nick Timiraos of the WSJ. Currently, 50 bps has an upper hand on Fedwatch (see above) with a 59% probability. Well, that is not exactly a sure bet. 

Usually, Powell likes to use Timiraos to telegraph their plan of action, thus removing uncertainty (and volatility) from the market. Jim Bianco explains it well in this thread. As a result of Timiraos’ Thursday article, consensus has flipped to a 50 bps cut, and TradFi indices are looking heavy at the open today.

If the market is offside, expecting 25 bps, there will be portfolio positioning to adjust, and we could be in for a start to the week full of choppy volatility that filters through to Bitcoin and everything else. (Yes, more chop! FML).

NFA as usual, please do your own research always.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

And a note from today’s sponsors…

What is the best approach to Bitcoin self-custody?

If you opt for self-custody, you’ll have to choose between many approaches to secure your BTC wealth. We help break down the options and explain how they differ.

  • What is singlesig?

  • Should I invent my own singlesig security?

  • Is a passphrase an ideal security approach?

  • How does multisig solve the problems of singlesig?

  • How do I achieve both security and convenience?

  • Why should I use multisig to secure my Bitcoin?

Bitcoin-based DeFi liquidity protocol Velar has launched the beta version of its PerpDex Artha — the "first Bitcoin-native perpetual swaps decentralized exchange" built on BOB [Build on Bitcoin]. 

The platform offers traders perp contracts with up to 20x leverage. The protocol taps on Bitcoin's underlying security and BOB's scalability. Velar intends to help users check the non-custodial trading box alongside deep liquidity and low fees. 

The DEX uses a straightforward system for leveraged trading using liquidity pools. Each pool, in turn, contains a base and quote coin. The team claims,

“One of the key features of Velar Artha PerpDex is its guarantee that every open position can always be closed, regardless of price movements.”

The reserve management system in place — consisting of “available reserves” and “locked reserves” — makes sure pools are always "fully backed," providing security and stability for all participants.

The important bits.

Even more important bits.

Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.

Bittensor is growing up

Podcast

The network has added seven more subnet slots over the past week, bringing the aggregate figure to 52. It’s on track to achieve the 64 milestone by the end of the year!

Well, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. 563, Brody, and Mike touch upon multiple other tangents in their latest TAO Talk episode.

Tune in on YouTube → here

To save you doom scrolling.

Don’t get carried away by the noise. In a world obsessed with exact figures and pinpoint predictions, we often overlook the real drivers of success. Precision lulls us into a false sense of security. It makes us believe we’ve calculated every outcome. 

But, being imprecise allows you to see the bigger picture. It frees you from the trap of overconfidence. It helps you remain flexible. When you leave room for ambiguity, you allow yourself to adapt and pivot when things don’t go as planned.

Remember, the real value ain’t in the number — it’s in how you react when the number is wrong.


Expect this week to be quite eventful. In a few hours from now, Trump is officially going to put to sea his DeFi project World Liberty Financial. Then by mid-week, the Fed is expected to lower interest rates for the first time in over four years. Amid all this, Token2049 and Solana Breakpoint will be happening in the background, so expect tons of reveals and launches by teams across the board.

strap up and sit tight homies,

Lavina 🫡

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