📗 Bottom Indicators Are Flashing Green. Is It Time?

GM, sidelined?

Hardly anyone can be sure what the move is right now. Tomorrow, we’ve got the Crypto Summit coming up, which most certainly will be underwhelming from a new information perspective. At the same time, everyone seems to think it’s a sell-the-news event.

All of this just adds to the broader uncertainty, underscored by this index—which, by the way, hasn’t been this high since the COVID-19 recession. Plus, when the economic uncertainty index hits highs, it’s usually a good time to buy from a longer-term perspective. Questions…

On top of that, the SPY put volume spiked yesterday to the 3rd highest in history. The previous two spikes were bottoms for the S&P 500.

It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see the bottom across risk markets sooner rather than later, whether that means a final dump into the $70k area for Bitcoin or a pump above $95k from here.

Looking at altcoins and TOTAL3, it seems like we’re already in a value area for buyers. I’m not saying you should go all in right at this moment, but we have to keep these things in mind. Hope is not lost yet.

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The important bits.

• Maia DAO (DeFi) - Announces the Talos Dynamic - automated concentrated liq. management

• Mode (L2) - Features the AI Agent App Store

• Ionet (DePIN) - Explains how to tokenized the AI economy with IO co-staking

• Yeet (Berachain) - Yeetards NFT will receive over 4 million PADD tokens

• Tanssi (DeFi) - Let’s Forking Dance rewards season round 1 is live

Even more important bits.

• $1.5T AUM Franklin Templeton says Solana’s DeFi growth could challenge Ethereum’s

• Jim Cramer says he does not see a trade deal being reached

• Bitwise’s Matt Hougan says that Trump’s crypto reserve will be “nearly entirely Bitcoin”

• Vice President JD Vance has acknowledged the viral “Pwease” meme coin

• Brazil’s board approves a new treasury strategy, allowing up to 10% cash allocation in BTC

• DoubleZero raises $28m to expand a 'global fiber network' for blockchains

• US senators voted to repeal the IRS DeFi broker rule

Charts and stats of the day.

• Aave reached $33M TVL on Sonic in 24h

• President Trump’s WLFI triples its $ETH holdings

• Sonic flipped Optimism in daily volume

• Real-World Assets onchain hit $17.93B ATH

• Berachain’s daily transactions reach 25% of Base
  

Crypto taxes? Absolute pain.

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Well, it doesn’t necessarily have to suck.

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BTC Weekly x M2 Global Liquidity

M2 Global liquidity is looking decent again - this is a weekly chart view, but we’ve been uptrending since 18 January (see this daily chart). Since last year, we’ve seen roughly a 10-11 week lag from when liquidity started to trend up, with BTC following suit. That would put the timing for a Bitcoin breakout around late to the end of March.

I’d love to see that M2 yellow line break up through the rising wedge, as it did pre-last cycle’s run in 2020. No Covid stimmies on the horizon, but Trump is likely going to run the printer, if he can, to fund his domestic manufacturing renaissance.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

The DeFAI narrative is leading.

Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.

How to Position For The Crypto Summit | Shitcoin Church

Podcast

And even more discussion on how to position for tomorrow’s event in today’s episode of Shitcoin Church.

Tune in on X | YouTube →

• Hana (Hyperliuqid fiat on/off ramp)

• SteadyTeddys NFT (Whitelist checker is live)

• Ostium (Prediction markets)

To save you doom scrolling.

CZ’s 4 is omnipresent.

One thing to mention again and again is that almost everyone should stay off leverage during these market periods. Many ex-trench warriors have transitioned into perpetual, thinking they’re playing the same game.

In fact, even the most experienced traders are getting absolutely rinsed right now. This is the highest-difficulty market in a long time; survival is number one.

When easy mode returns, we can all get it back in one trade. For now, preserve your chips.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡