🌊 Brace Yourselves: Liquidity Is Coming

GM, these days are exciting.

Even if you’re hurting and having random PTSD flashbacks of your all-time high portfolio value like me, I think there’s a good case here to remain very (very) bullish long term.

Even though the tariff war is in full motion now, with China striking back with its own extra 34% tariffs on US goods, we’re finally reaching a point that might lead to a policy shift.

The Fed funds futures market is already pricing in 4.5 rate cuts for this year. The 10-year yield is dropping below 3%. US oil is dumping hard, signaling an end to inflation. The Orange Man got every country on the phone, ready to negotiate, meaning we might see a turnaround from bearish to bullish headlines. BTC vs. MAG7 continues to grind higher. The dollar is crossing below its 200-day moving average.

Don’t get me wrong, the carnage might continue, and I can’t tell you when it ends. What I’m sure of is that it will, and by Q3-Q4 this year, we’re going to be talking in a much more positive sense.

If you remember what we discussed regarding global liquidity during the past few months, you know that we were waiting for a shift in the US and a breakout of global liquidity to all-time highs. This has now happened, and the start of the next leg up is here.

The fear, the macro drama, the endless doom talk—this is exactly what markets look like before something big shifts. I mean, VIX just reached 45; we’re firmly in crazy land.

Let’s see how we go. Hands off leverage, add solid assets only and stay patient. We’ll make it through this.

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The important bits.

• Sophon releases the Q1 roundup, read here

• Mode announces Epoch 6 rewards claim

• Superseed answers rapid fire question about their protocol on blocmates

• Tanssi announces Builder’s Bay drops for tommorow

• Superseed announces Superbridge - bridge here 

• Vana announces Daul Validator Staking, learn how to stake here

• Shadow Exchange announces increase in liquidity points, check yours here

• Peapods Finance will deploy new Berachain vaults in 5 days

• Core DAO’s BTFfi Bitcoin staking is growing, showing massive potential compared to ETH

• Ooga Booga, Berachain DEX airdrops OOGA to users

• Sonic DeFAI Hackathon announces $250,000 in prizes

• HyperSwap announces “Ecosystem Points” reward season

Even more important bits.

• California to ask countries to exempt it from any retaliatory tariffs on the US

• Trump says "China played it wrong, they panicked."

• Global Recession odds rise to 60%, according to JP Morgan

• JPMorgan says President Trump's tariffs are the largest US tax hike since 1968.

Charts and stats of the day.

• Over $1.5 trillion wiped out from US stock market at open

• US unemployment rate rises to 4.2%, higher than expectations.

• Bitcoin performing better than technology stocks

• U.S. companies cut 275,240 jobs in March

• Equities are making lower lows, BTC higher lows

• The Magnificent 7 Index is now down over -30%

• Silver just gave up its entire 2025 bull run in one day

• SOL fundamentals took a big hit after the temporary memecoin bubble

Crypto taxes? Absolute pain.

Sifting through receipts, crunching numbers — it's a yearly ritual of suffering. Throw crypto into the mix, and it’s full-blown chaos.

Now you’re juggling transactions across wallets, flipping between CEXes and DEXes, and wondering if that airdrop was a win or just a taxable headache. And let’s not even start on staking rewards…

Well, it doesn’t necessarily have to suck.

Crypto Tax Calculator is built for degens like you. With over 1000+ integrations, a custom shitcoin pricing oracle, and the superpower to handle your on-chain terror.

 You can either generate reports your accountant will love or directly file ‘em yourself. 

 Snag 20% off your first year. Your accountant — and sanity — will thank you.

SPX Futures 1M - high timeframe recession / bear / correction view

SPX is approaching -20% / official bear market territory here. For that we need sustained high timeframe closes underneath 4900. I have been talking about the breakout retest at 4800 being something to watch for a little while.

Until now, it’s been too distant a downside target for most people to even consider. That is not the case anymore. Breakout retests have been common downside targets in the past - see Covid and the 2022 bear for examples of those.

On the BTC side, we’re seeing huge relative strength today, purely by virtue of it not moving much, whilst SPX is collapsing. Maybe we are going to see it fulfill the promise of following gold’s outperformance with that much-hoped 13-week lag.

I would still put reversal here as an outside chance, given how risk is getting smoked, but if you look at the SPX / BTC chart, there’s a tentative green dildo worth watching. Let’s see how it holds up into daily and weekly close.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Search analytics for crypto, BTC, and bitcoin are almost back to their pre-election lows.

The market restart is almost complete. In my opinion, this was needed.

• Bera Reserve (Berachain)

• LIKWID (Margin trading protocol)

• Bearn (Berachain BGT liquid locker)

• Velora (Formerly ParaSwap DEX)

To save you doom scrolling.

Man oh man, I’m getting hornt.

My personal strategy to survive and thrive long term is avoiding trading, being deployed on Infrared Finance, shuffling yield daily, and accumulating HYPE. In my mind, I am farming 10x the value every day. From the long-term perspective, HYPE is made to do a minimum 1,000% upmove from here.

This is not financial advice; I'm just saying what I’m doing, and you’re free to join me. Enjoy!

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡