😱 Brace Yourselves! We've Got a Plan For The Worst (And The Best) Scenario.

GM, the game is on.

We’re in a highly treacherous territory. The VIX (volatility index) is shooting up, and everyone is on their toes, waiting for today’s Nvidia earnings. If NVDA flops, we can expect another leg down across the board.

Nevertheless, a bounce is most likely on the way soon, whether it’s today or into the beginning of March. The thing we need to watch the closest is BTC reclaiming $92k on the daily and $95k on the weekly as quickly as possible.

If that doesn’t happen, and BTC rejects up there, there’s a high possibility of venturing into the lower range and staying there for multiple months. This scenario means a mini chop/bear market period, which might last into the year's second half. For a full breakdown of this scenario, I would humbly recommend you watch this.

Many are already throwing the idea of a 4-year cycle in the bin, but let’s not forget the path of global liquidity is still on track to end not right now, but by the end of the year. Moreover, 2 of 3 core liquidity measures in this framework have turned bullish this month as markets dive.

Also, we’re seeing a sharp bounce in rate-cut expectations in the US. Will the market dissonance we’re experiencing right now make the Fed ease quicker? Let’s see.

Lastly, the fear and greed index is currently at levels last seen on September 7th, 2024. These levels market the bottom the last time but remember; lower prices are still possible unless BTC reclaims $95 on the weekly. Stay focused, and good luck.

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The important bits.

• Ramen Finance (Launchpad) - NAV Finance presale registration is open

• MegaETH (L2) - Announces testnet in 7 days

• Beraborrow (Berachain) - Beraborrow launched today

• Berachain (L1) - Governance Phase 1 is now live

• Dinero (DeFi) - beraETH reward vaults on Berachain are coming

Even more important bits.

• Trumps says ‘Inflation is back,’ blames Biden

• PayPal plans to expand the integration of its stablecoin, PYUSD

• Strive Asset Management urges GameStop to buy Bitcoin

• SEC drops the Uniswap investigation

Charts and stats of the day.

• DeFi mindshare keeps growing

• MicroStrategy, $MSTR, falls over -55%

• Berachain is leading the L1 inflows

• 10y Treasury Yield now lower than Fed Funds (inverted again)

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SPX 4H

Tradfi weakness and ongoing macro uncertainty is affecting our bags at the moment. Old man Buffett is sitting on the biggest Berkshire cash pile of all time. He believes everything is priced to perfection again. At times like these it pays to slow down and move cautiously. The S&P 500 has a gap down around 5900, and I suspect choppy price action will lead to get it getting filled in due course. This could be a good place to take stock and look for strength / reversals in other risk assets like BTC. As noted in yesterday’s chart, I suspect we are going to test the $81k area over the next week or so.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Berachain an Sonic lead the narrative mindshare.

Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.

On the Spot: Tanssi

Research

If you’re not aware of Tanssi yet, don’t miss this episode of On the Spot.

• SteadyTeddys (Berachain NFT)

To save you doom scrolling.

In it for the long game. It will surely be fun retweeting this in 2030.

Tough times don’t last; only tough people last. This crypto stuff is far from over. Survive!

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡