🧐 Bull Market Continues ONLY If These Levels Hold:

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They’ve already released some pretty cool crypto-themed games, and with football (not soccer) season back, their upcoming sportsbook couldn’t be dropping at a better time.

So if you fancy a punt, go have a play. Just remember, as always: gamble responsibly.

GM, the importance of these moments cannot be understated.

SBF is back with GM tweeting and pumping his useless FTT coins, Powell is fudding the f out of the market, saying everything is too highly valued, SPX just saw the worst daily move in 36 sessions, and Ansem is continuing to call the top on the daily. I’m tired, boss.

But we simply go on. This cycle is weird, to say the least. I mean, the altcoin index is showing it’s 2021 bull run type season right now, but it’s basically only ASTER that’s pumping (watch this, by the way, huge).

Where to from here? After we get through the early October weakness, I still expect a bullish market. Nevertheless, we also need to be aware of the bearish scenario. We’re not here to blindly bull post, and the bearish potential is definitely there. Key word: potential.

Right now, BTC is hanging on a very important support level. Simply put, we don’t want to see BTC start to close below $112.3k, as that would be an early sign of continued weakness. Then, longer term, if September closes red, the bearish scenario becomes much more likely.

The same goes for ETH; it needs to hold basically right around this area. Otherwise, there’s a legit possibility of this being a distribution range. Mark out these levels. If ETH travels below $4K and hangs below, it’s likely coming down all the way to $3.6-3.5k.

Keep those levels in mind, and remember that if September closes red, we’ll likely see this whole range on the TOTAL market cap play out. This would basically mean a bearish Q4, perhaps even early 2026.

Which would also mean a bear market period followed by another cycle? Considering the prolonged business cycle, as explained here, I think this scenario is not out of the question.

Whichever path we take, something is brewing, and it will be big. The BTC volatility levels will expand from the lowest levels in history, while the Bollinger bands are really, really tight. Huge moves ahead.

What gives us hope for Q4 is the fact that M2 money supply just suddenly pumped into a new all-time high territory.

All in all, we’re still bullish until proven otherwise. The bearish scenario was explained above, so let’s keep all these things in mind as we proceed. See you guys tomorrow.

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The important bits.

• Plasma is launching XPL tomorrow, prepare here

• XPL will be live on Hyperliquid spot tomorrow, read here

• Pyth announces Pyth Pro for institutions, watch here

• Mira Network announces the MIRA tokenomics and launch date, read here

• Layer Zero breakdown now available in new blocmates video, watch here

• Bless token BLESS is now live and claimable, claim here

• FLR is now listed on Hyperliquid, read the FLR token breakdown

• Aster Binance listing date is now confirmed, announcement here

• HEMI is now listed on Hyperliquid, trade here

• Kinetiq Hype depeged on Hyperliquid, chart here

• OpenSea announces Pokémon claw machines with Beezie, read here

• Phygitals announces Japanese Promo Packs, read here

Even more important bits.

• SEC says a new “innovation exemption” for crypto could arrive by December, read here

• The FTX Recovery Trust has filed a lawsuit seeking to claw back $1.15B, read here

• CFTC to allow stablecoins as collateral in US derivatives markets, read here

• Vitalik explains why Base and L2s are doing it right and are safe, read here

• Arthur Hayes explains 26x potential for HYPE, watch here

Charts and stats of the day.

• 36 sessions since the S&P 500 has seen a -1% or worse daily move, chart here

• BNB continues to lead the weekly active addresses for the last 6 weeks, chart here

• Total RWA onchain market cap is now over $30 bullion, chart here

• Aster flipped Hyperliquid in daily revenue (by a lot), stats here

• Daily perp volumes are up +150% in the last 3 days, chart here

• PUMP buybacks are down 50% in USD from the highs 10 days ago, chart here

• Hyperliquid’s market share has declined from 6.2% to 5.0%, chart here

Don’t miss out on the daily blocmates news bulletin with Gaz! Tune in here.

Become your own bank.

ether.fi Cash is the real-world spending product we DeFi natives have been waiting for for so long.

It’s time to ditch your bank altogether and embrace the crypto life:

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• Pay off your debt with yield + cashback: earn 9% on stables, 7% on ETH, 2% on BTC, with HYPE and SOL on the way.

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Since we have some bull divs brewing, I wanna slap in some trades with tight stops. Still more defensive until we see how early October plays out:

• BONK

• CAKE

• Waiting for lil dip on Aster

• DOGE

• PYTH after a lil dip

• OMFG (DeFi)

• NRN Agents (AI agents)

To save you from doomscrolling.

Must watch, blocmates on top.

Onwards friends. If I can say one thing, it’s that now is the time to really focus, because the things that happen soon will dictate what happens for the rest of the year. Tune in tomorrow.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡