🧐 Did Crypto Market Top? 3 Critical Factors to Watch:

PLUS all the AI udpates and projects to watch!

January 29, 2025

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The timeline smells rotten at the moment, with bears dancing around and laughing at people round-tripping their bags. But is it really over? I don’t think so.

We’ve got a massive volatility event coming up this evening, 7 PM UTC, with Jerome Powell taking the FOMC stage for the first time during Trump’s presidency. It’s almost certain that there won’t be any policy changes today; what matters is whether Powell talks hawkishly or not.

We all know that even if markets dump upon FOMC day, it’s not unlikely to see a reversal shortly after, with markets forward looking for the next FOMC, which will likely be more dovish. It’s a mindfuck, I know.

That being said, let’s ground things a bit. What we want to see is BTC staying above or at least around $100k by the nearing monthly close. After that we want to see BTC getting stronger right at the beginning of February.

Statistically, this is what always happens during bull run years. If that is not the case, and we see the first weeks of February being bearish, there might be more problems ahead.

Moreover, the global liquidity expansion cycle is expected to end by the end of this year, which again supports the theory that we still have some time to go up. This is underscored by global liquidity starting to rise again since a few weeks ago, compared to its stalling since the end of October 2024. Bitcoin usually lags behind global liquidity, so this current rise will likely support it from here.

Now, to the real cause of concern in the markets: everyone just got absolutely rekt on meme coins. While the whole timeline screams for total meme coin death (again), there are definitely signs of them bottoming right now (typical). 

On that note, I wouldn’t be so keen on jumping into non-battle-tested, new memecoins for the next leg. The real play might be those that have stayed around since 2023. This is not financial advice, of course, and if we see BTC closing weeklies under $100k, there’s more pain to come.

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HYPEUSDT.P 1D Bybit

There is some nice compression on display here. Price has been sandwiched between that weekly open / 0.618 retracement and the point of control since Thursday last week.

This has come to be known as the Leonardo Dicaprio range - everything above 25 gets rejected. That can’t go on forever though, right? I think as soon as the broader market switches bullish, this chart pops hard to the upside.

Check out the bullish tweet of all time here for a full list of catalysts.

A giant amount of quality projects will launch as soon as the Hyperliquid EVM is live. Many of them have airdrops.

EVM composability will kick off big ecosystem momentum is the bet. Blocmates have secured a Hypermates validator - check out the staking guide for more.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Smart-money movements on Ethereum.

Source: ChainEdge

Smart-money movements on Solana.

Source: ChainEdge

AI16Z -> ElizaOS Rebrand

AI16Z will soon rebrand to a less memeable handle - ElizaOS. The brand equity is mostly in the framework at this point, and it has a lot of technical momentum - almost 4k forks on the eliza repo alone. The leaderboard of devs shipping is gigantic.

This will go hand in hand with big tokenomics changes. They have some work to do to fix the mess in both the Eliza (not officially recognised) and AI16Z charts. Shaw has a long form tweet that still doesn’t quite explain how they’re going to  reconcile everything, but it’s probably worth a bet at these levels that some price momentum is regained.

Hyperfly

Hyperliquid made chart of the day, and Hyperfly looks like a slick AI copilot that slots into the eco as a solid DeFAI play. The chart has shown a lot of relative strength vs. other AI coins lately, and the market cap is still only $16.5m. 

LiquidLaunch

Sticking with Hyperliquid, https://liquidlaunch.app/ is a kind of pump.fun x Virtuals hybrid for launching both vanilla tickers and AI agents. Billed as ‘The first native ERC20 token and AI agent fair launch platform.’ Once the Hyperliquid EVM is live, I expect this platform to have a good run. The chart may be a bit overextended here - I am waiting for a pullback to get in.

New content to study.

New projects & updates.

  • DeFin (DeFi AI agents)

  • Neko (Autonomous AI agent)

  • EVAL Engine (AI agents)

  • AGI Labs (AI agent swarms)

  • OpenAI says they have evidence that DeepSeek illegally used their "proprietary models to train its own open-source competitor,"

  • Alibaba launches AI model Qwen 2.5, claiming it surpasses DeepSeek-V3

The important bits.

  • Mode (L2) - Synth Subnet: The DeFAI Data Layer is now live

  • Tannsi (DeFi) - Tune in to Tannsi AI agent deep dive today

  • Superseed (L2) - Explains Proof-of-Repayment

  • Sophon (Entertainment layer) - Join the Petopia event and earn rewards

  • Hermes (DeFi) - 200% APR available for voting on GOGLZ rewards

  • Core DAO (BTCFi) - Earn Spark rewards with Core native wallet

  • GenLayer (AI, L1) - Partners with Spheronid

  • Infinex (DeFi) - Teases a Berachain implementation/airdrop

  • Laine (Solana validator) - Solana Mainnet rollout of 2.1 is underway

  • Symbiotic (DeFi) - Mainnet goes live

  • Dogwifhat (Meme) - Teases a Las Vegas Sphere update

  • Sanko (Gaming) - Announces SocialFi on Sanko

  • Lido (LST) - Announces restaking revolution with Symbiotic

  • Move (L1) - Now one of the chains considered for D.O.G.E.

Even more important bits.

Charts and stats of the day.

Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.

Hyperliquid & chill biweekly recap.

Research

Dive into the Hyperliquid ecosystem with our biweekly recap.

Tune in on X â†’

tanssi: The next-gen stack for symbiotic network chain launches.

Research

The TLDR:

  • Tanssi is a next-gen stack for launching app chains.

  • Pre-built infra. No need to set up validators from scratch

  • Shared security. Skip the hassle of attracting your own set

  • Plug-and-play deployment. Teams can focus on building, not bootstrapping

Ollie has had a look in depth in this new complete guide.

Superseed: Why sentiment is shifting to L2s with moats.

Research

An open-source, permissionless layer-2 OP chain with a built-in collateralized debt position (CDP) protocol that lets users borrow against a wide range of tokens.

With the Supersale (public sale) concluding last month and TGE and mainnet coming soon, Ollie has returned to this lot for a piece on why he thinks the utility and community-first approach have teed it up for success.

To save you doom scrolling.

The show must go on.


Let’s do a poll for tomorrow, and I'll let you guys know the results tomorrow: do you believe the market topped?

Is crypto bull run over?

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stay safe homies,

Hix0n đŸ«Ą

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