😱 Fear Season: Should We Start to Worry?

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GM, the fear is finally palpable.

Not only are the charts hitting prices unimaginable just some days ago, but we also get to enjoy a good old FUD on the timeline. Today, it comes in the form of the Department of Justice allegedly being just now being greenlighted to sell around $6.5b worth of Bitcoin previously seized from Silkroad.

Nevertheless, as per usual, all this might be a bit overblown. Not only is the DoJ news piece old, and the decision was made last month already, but the wallet holding the six billies is still intact. Maybe, just maybe, if they sell, we get to see the final wick down to say $88k per BTC.

Bullish divergences are already showing up, and if Bitcoin heads lower, it won’t take much more to see a proper bounce just days later.

Once again, we don’t want to see any longer-term closes below $90k, although that whole area can be reached on a daily basis with volatility wicks. So, there is no genuine concern unless we close weeklies in the lower range.

Also, don’t forget that January market blood is very common, so this price action shouldn’t surprise us.

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BTC/USDT 4H Binance

As news breaks of the latest USG $6.5bn BTC jeet fest - a parting rug from an anti-crypto administration - Trump’s inauguration could become a buy-the-news type situation. 

As Alex Kruger points out, with a first-of-its-kind pro-crypto admin and Trump’s penchant for numbers going up, the chop is possible or even likely, but the bull is likely far from done. My personal bet is that the macro tech will improve in the coming weeks.

The BTC chart above mostly speaks for itself. We’re at range lows here - lose them, and we will likely sweep those wicks made on the way up from $85k.

We’re due a bounce here, at the very least. There will be more NFP data released tomorrow, which may act as a counterpoint to the likely overly optimistic labour data earlier this week and provide more fuel for some chart relief.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

New content to study.

• Tokenization of AI Agentic Metaverse by 0xJeff

• AI Agents Weekly Recap by Sandra

• Another DeFAI interview with Daniel Sesta

New AI projects.

• Zenith (Ai on Virtuals)

• InifinityGround (Entertainment, AI)

• Yokodotlive (Make your own AI)

• Gigabrain (AI to find market alpha)

The important bits.

• GMX (DeFi) - Announces a full GMX update

• Illuvium (Gaming) - Partners with Virtuals

• Hyperliquid (L1) - Shares their 2024 overview

• Superseed (L2) - Supersale is now finished; more information is coming tomorrow

• Nillion (First blind computer) - Announces Thales integration

• Core DAO (BTCFi) - Earn 5x points with Satoshi Perps

• Sophon (Entertainment layer) - Introduces all Sophon partners

• Maia DAO (DeFi) - On-chain governance for adding Sonic Chain just passed

• mETH Protocol (DeFi) - Introduces Greater Yield Potential with mETH & cmETH

• Vana (AI, data) - Read about Vana in the new article “Inside Vana's Vision for User-Owned AI”

Even more important bits.

• Do Kwon’s trial scheduled for 2026

• Oracle firm Pyth Network ties up with Revolut

• Coinbase reportedly received a CFTC subpoena related to Polymarket, potentially requiring the exchange to share user account data

• Bubblemaps announces airdrop

• Orange Finance was exploited

• Oklahoma senator introduces the BTC Freedom Act

Charts and stats of the day.

• Cat index shows Mog clearly leading the way

Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.

Nillion: Pioneering blind computation on-chain.

Research

Mainnet is creeping closer for Nillion, so it feels right that we push this as our first research report of the year!

We're expecting a huge year for these guys, and I even have it on good authority that they could creep up in our 2025 thesis by Grant.

Read More → 

How Griffain Is Pioneering On-Chain Intelligence and Trading Strategies with AI Agents on Solana

Podcast

Grant sits down with Tony, the founder of Griffain, to uncover the groundbreaking AI technology transforming the crypto landscape.

Watch on Youtube →

• 3BerasCapital (Berachain, AI)

To save you doom scrolling.

January confusion was to be expected. The market won’t let anyone seize the win so easily. Don’t get emotional now.

While the CT argues about top this top that, the corporate whales are quietly stacking up their sats. I won’t let my bags go that easily.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡