- The blocmates Newsletter
- Posts
- š§ FOMC Day! Will Jerome Powell Choose Rich?
š§ FOMC Day! Will Jerome Powell Choose Rich?
PLUS let's check back on new perp. DEX leaders
š Market commentary.
Welcome again, fellow crypto dreamer.
Are our dreams being shattered as we speak? Perhaps yes, most likely not. If you've been active on CT lately, youāve surely noticed the overly exuberant and confident demeanor of most reply guys. Actually, I asked X enjoyers on Saturday a simple question: are you long, or are you short? Stunningly, 77% of my dear followers were long and strong.
We are a mere month away from Bitcoinās literally Magic Number Halving, and if you recall Q1 2020, then you know these periods are full of market chops (wen black swan?). The goal of the market is to flip direction when itās least expected. Then, itās to train the participants to act in the new direction, and once most of them are trained to repeat the same action over and over (buy the dip), thatās when the behavior changes again.
Right now, we might be in the midst of a typical real bull market pullback. Key phrase: bull market.
So now, despite the bloody market, it's essential to remember that the ETF outflows will turn into inflows again. Entities such as Japanās $1.5 trillion government are actively planning to include Bitcoin in their portfolio allocations, Ethereum ETF hopes are stronger than ever as SEC gets blowback from judges to not abuse crypto, and after todayās FOMC meeting, uncle Powell tells the markets an evening story that will provide it with the new dot plot, and with it, the path forward.
Markets dislike uncertainty, and that's precisely what weāre seeing right now.
š Lukeās Chart of the Day
BTCUSDT 1D Pullback Areas of Interest
Tricky chart today - we have a nice bounce from Eth, but the BTC bounce so far, while decent, is a little lacking for me on the volume and momentum side. That could be because we have FOMC in a few hours, or it could mean we need to go lower first. Daily RSI is also still quite far from oversold.
If we consider we have had a parabolic runup from $25k to ~$74k, a 25% correction would not be out of the ordinary mid-bull run. In 2017, corrections averaged 35-40%, and even last cycle, we speedran $10k - $40k and corrected ~30%. Maybe we donāt go that deep, and the middle purple box produces the wick that sends us back to ATH. Whatever we get, Iām pretty sure weāre not done here, with the halving just around the corner. Maybe 5-10 days of pain and praying left, and then we will, god willing, be printing a new green monthly candle.
š„ Degen corner.
Shovels and picks
An age-old saying goes, "During a gold rush, sell shovels and picks." Now, post-memecoin frenzy, it might be wise to consider established Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs). For instance, RabbitX and Vertex appear undervalued compared to their peers, judging by their price-to-sales ratios.
š DeFi insights.
The important bits.
Berachain (L1) - Rumours of Bittensor collaboration - read
Arbitrum (L2) - Rolls out Atlas upgrade - read
Merit Circle (Gaming) - Plans GPU cloud infrastructure for BEAM - read
Botanix Labs (BTC EVM) - Partners with Palladium - read
Yearn Finance (DeFi) - Releases new product trailer - read
Milady (NFT) - Charlotte recovers his account - read
Shrapnel (Gaming) - Integrates Stardust wallets - read
Maker DAO (DeFi) - Updates on new proposals for Launch Season - read
š° DeFi news.
Even more important bits.
š« ICYMI.
Life gets busy so hereās what youāve missed.
Exit Liquidity - Is it over?
Podcast
Ben and Captain Rational break down the macro tailwinds and headwinds so we can figure out where to point the sails as we navigate the waters of global liquidity.
š„ Tweet of the day.
To save you doom scrolling.
Real retardio right there smoltingā¦
š¦ And finallyā¦
Stay tuned for the Bitcoin layer 2 and EVM narrative comeback. However, one must tread cautiously when investing in this space (lots and lots of vapor). For us, Botanix Labs stands out as the most promising prospect. More on this later!
Reply