🦧 If you missed Bitcoin's pump, check this out!

plus... the BTC bat signal lights up Berlin, Genesis is STILL trading crypto AND MORE

Gm gm mates, Happy Monday!

PAAAMP IT! Alts were popping off left right and centre over the weekend and it feels like we have a new meta in bullish token unlocks, as we saw the likes of AXS, dYdX, and STG making moves.

Are we going to see Bitcoin's 3rd mini-parabolic run this week? Let's hope so as I personally (Dan) missed the first 2 (whoops!) and I know there are many other sidelined missooors out there. So today's newsletter might just teach you how to NOT be a salty missooor!

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The TLDR of what’s inside.

🔥 The Big Topic. Did you miss the Bitcoin pump?! Here's how to not be a missooor? 🗞 Hot Crypto News. Red Date Tech launches Universal Digital Payment Network (UDPN) in Davos, the BTC bat signal lights up Berlin, Moody downgrades CoinBase to "non-investment grade" and MORE.👀 Updates Across the Bloc. Tapioca DAO Tap talks feature LayerZero CEO Bryan Pellegrino, Jones DAO launches jGLP & jUSDC pools Jan 24th, GMX & Gammaswaps token swap proposal up for discussion and MORE.🛡 Chart of the day. What's next for the $SPX?

🔥 The Big Topic.

Did you miss the Bitcoin pump?! Here's how to not be a missooor?

Are you a salty missoooor because you missed the pump, anon?

Are you still in a state of disbelief?

Is being right more important than taking back from the market what it once robbed from you?

If you missed this latest move like me because “IRL was busy” or “macro is bad, we’re in a bear market”. Don't worry, because the good news is our stables haven’t depegged.

Here's what happened and how not to be a salty missoooor on the market's next move.

Right, let's turn focus to...

  • Whats happening

  • The bottoms, in hindsight

  • How not to miss the next leg up

Do you hear that? It’s an echo bubble.

Cantering Clark called this back in June 2022 (yeah, I know… we had 6 months to prepare for this) and then highlighted it in November 2022.

An echo bubble is the bubble that forms after a true bubble has burst, instilling a sense of euphoria leading to “YEAAAA WE BACK BOYZZZ”, bringing with it a crippling sense of FOMO for those in disbelief.

My favourite indicator that we’re back on came from the blocmates official bordom sentiment checker, where we covered in Bitcoin to $31,000?! 3 Reasons WHY it's Pumping.

Basically an echo bubble is where the markets are heavily oversold and people get bored, which leads to them fuelling a rally, causing extreme FOMO the higher it goes and ultimately pushing the price up.

Crypto Twitter's Andrew Kang thinks we are in an echo bubble and breaks it down.

Ok cool, but that doesn't help me not feel like a missoooor with stables, so what's the plan?!

A Short-Term Bottom Thesis

Hold your horses, anon, lets look at the potential (short-term) bottoming signals for a sec.

FTX, clear as day… the de-buckling of SBF and his goon squad was as good a signal as any as he dumped his bags, and caused mass overselling, all for a get-out-of-jail-free card.

Check out the bonk on Solana dropping almost 69%.

And Jimmy C, we salute you for being ever-reliable as crypto's ultimate bottom signal as we've seen Solana pumping 103% and Bitcoin 38% 🫡

Perfect, so FTX, Jimmy C and the blocmates bordom sentiment indicator marked the bottom (coupled with positive inflation figures and a changing media portrayal of the markets). But now what?! We missed APT up 280%, SOL up 103%, BTC up 38%, and ETH up 33%… even the LINK marines enjoyed a 25% pump.

How to not miss the next leg

Huddle in, anon, this is your halftime pep talk.

Leave your FOMO at the door, put your big boy pants on and let's get ready for whatever happens next.

5 action points to avoid being a missoooor

1. Pay Attention. What's the current narrative at play? What's the next one going to be? Write your thesis down to formulate a plan.

2. Charts charts charts. Load up your charts, mark your key areas, and eliminate your stubborn bias. Being able to flip from bear to bull and back to bear is a key skill to have, especially in an echo bubble.

3. Risk Management. Smart capital allocation is key here so manage your risk, deploy it in a sensible meaningful way and make a log of it.

4. Crypto Twitter. Unfollow the salty ones, they’re not helping. Create a list of alpha accounts that give a good insight into what's happening.

5. Wallet Tracking. Oh yes, my favourite. Find your 5 golden nuggets, see what they’re doing and act accordingly.

BONUS. Plan your execution and stick to it. Got good alpha? Evaluate it with haste, assess the potential % movement and execute the plan.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing as it brings about even more FOMO and feelings of regret. But it also teaches what you need to do moving forward. Does your plan involve RSI? Awesome, look for an oversold signal on the daily/weekly. Are the candles showing a bullish reversal? Brilliant, go back and look for that pattern and see what happened.

Conclusion

Yes, anon, I missed that first monster leg-up. But don't, worry capital rotation happens on a daily basis in crypto so there's another chance in another area. Jump in the blocmates discord to join the conversation of what might be coming.

Game face on, half-time pep talk is DONE!

Here are my personal secret tools:

Useful Resources: Lookonchain (gives useful whale wallets) | Cielo Telegram Wallet Tracker | C^4 News Aggregator | Token Unlocks

PS. None of the above is financial advice, just my own musings on my own frustration of being a salty missooor.

🗞 Hot Crypto News.

🐮 Bullish

Red Date Technology, a Hong Kong-based blockchain company launched the Universal Digital Payment Network (UDPN) during the Davos conference. The UDPN is looking to do what Swift does for banks but for stablecoins and CBDCs (Whitepaper). A number of undisclosed Tier 1 banks are involved to test proof of concept.

Fantom Funds vault goes live, where 10% of the burn rate gets directly allocated to the vault to empower builders and promote growth across the ecosystem.

The BTC Bat Signal, was sent out over the weekend as an anon group of Bitcoin maxis lit up the iconic Berliner Fernsehturm tower in Berlin. Is this the official signal of Bitcoin's next parabolic run?!

🐻 Bearish

Moody's downgrades CoinBase, stating that the firm is “non-investment grade” and “speculative and subject to high credit risk" as the exchange continues to weather the crypto winter. The Shanghai upgrade could be extremely positive for CoinBase and its staked Ethereum services.

Business as usual for Genesis, as the trading arm of the business, continues to move crypto to exchanges despite Genesis Lending filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy last week. Genesis' on-chain portfolio is the 3rd largest whale on Nansen's Funds Leaderboard behind Jump Trading and Paradigm Capital.

Genesis Bankruptcy Hearing #1, is scheduled for Jan 23rd at 2pm EST. The court will decide whether to accept the relief proposed in the chapter 11 filing and whilst the United States Trustee will appoint a committee for unsecured creditors.

👀 Updates Across the Bloc.

Project Updates

ARCHITECT, has raised $5m and is the brainchild of former FTX US CEO Brett Harrison. Investors include CoinBase Ventures, Circle Ventures and Anthony Scaramucci.

DIVA LABS, a liquid staking solution powered by distributed validators has just raised $3.5m and released their first set of docs.

TAPIOCA DAO, next discord TapTalk features LayerZero CEO and Founder Bryan Pellegrino on Jan 24th at 8PM UTC to talk about the "Omnichain Future."

JONES DAO, launching their new Advanced Strategy Vaults jGLP & jUSDC pools Jan 24th.

OSMOSIS, the Neon Upgrade is set to go live Jan 23rd which will see an update to the liquidity pools being more resistant to manipulation and more revealed in this thread.

XMON, Sudoswaps airdrop might be soon with the 0xmons snapshot being taken on block 16,410,000. 41.9% of the SUDO distribution will go to XMON holders.

Governance Updates

GMX 🤝 GAMMASWAP, token swap proposal submitted to fund the building of new structured products and hedged IL vaults.

MAKERDAO, narrowly manages to pass the vote (50.85% : 49.15%) to keep the debt ceiling to $500m for Geminis GUSD stablecoin in Makers Peg Stability Module (PSM). The PSM helps keep the peg of DAI at a 1:1 ratio against any other stablecoin. Geminis GUSD has a heavy reliance on Makers PSM as shown in this Dune Dashboard.

🛡 Chart of the day.

What's next for the $SPX?

It has been a great start to 2023 in the markets with plenty of upwards movement and a renewed sense of LFGGG. But what's next for the $SPX? As it sits in limbo between the 50EMA (light blue) and 200EMA (red) on the daily chart.

If we get another strong week without fud we could be in for a golden cross where the 50 and 200 EMAs cross which, historically, is bullish for the markets. We have strong resistance at 4100 having failed to break it twice in December.

Bull case, we break the downwards slopping trend line, hold above the 200EMA and break through the 4100 mark en route to 4300-4400.

Bear case, another failed attempt at breaking the downwards-slopping trend line as we see heavy profit taking, continued macro pressure and more FUD in the news sending it back down into the 3700-3800 region before falling off a cliff to 3500.

Coming up this week:

And on that note, thanks for reading, catcha apes in the next edition!

blocmates, jedi & dan 🫡

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