💥 Israel/Iran War Statistics: How Will Crypto React?

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GM, welcome to Jewful June.

At this point, it honestly feels like someone out there is funding their war efforts by shorting crypto markets the moment we start believing we might just make it all back.

Jokes aside, let’s check out these statistics depicting how markets behave after every Israel/Iran conflict. If history is any guide, we could be heading back up soon. When? Well, Israel says the current operation could last about two weeks—so that gives us a rough timeline to watch. If history repeats, we could be back on the upside pretty soon.

For now, keep your eyes on the “war wick” low around $102k. The more that level gets breached and closed under, the higher the probability we slide into a classic summer chop zone. If that happens, the best strategy is to do as little as possible—don’t get baited into longing every breakout or fading every fake dump.

Nevertheless, BTC isn’t at these important levels yet, so there’s still a chance for all this to blow over and return to joyful times if the Middle East situation de-escalates.

On a brighter note, yesterday saw the largest liquidation event since April’s bottom. If anything, that could act as a solid reset.

Lastly, let’s hope BTC won’t dump much further. Doing so would mean breaking the M2 money supply chart correlation, which has served the market perfectly so far. All in all, patience will be needed.

Let’s reassess on Monday, see you there.

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The important bits.

• Premia sunsets the liquidity mining incentives for V3, details here

• Giza’s AI agents are 59% personalized, deploy your own agent here

• Mira Network partners with GoPlusSecurity, read the announcement here

• INFINIT can tailor trade recommendations based on your wallet address, try it here

• Altitude launches their public vaults, earn 60% + APY on BTC or ETH here

• Off The Grid game on Avalanche launches buyable game skins, see preview here

• Felix on Hyperliquid launches spot gold markets, trade here

• Berachain explains the new Bectra upgrade in depth, read here

• HyperBeat on Hyperliquid reached $120m TVL, full stats here

Even more important bits.

• Amazon & Walmart explore launching their own stablecoins

• Coinbase introduces crypto card with 4% BTC cashback

• DeFi Development Corp. established a $5b line of equity credit to buy even more SOL

• Coinbase announces the launch of perpetual futures in the US

• Trump says he won't fire "Numbskull" Powell, but demands rate cuts

• BlackRock sets $35B revenue target and $400B private markets fundraising goal

Charts and stats of the day.

• Total Crypto Liquidations across exchanges reached $1.14b

• Crypto ETFs are on pace to see record launches this year

• GameStop shares plunge 22% after $2.25B raise to fund Bitcoin treasury strategy

• US Treasury Yields are dropping

• Arbitrum is now generating 15x more fees than Optimism's OP Mainnet

• Gold prices surge above $3450/oz and now stand less than 2% away from ATH

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BTCUSD Coinbase 12H Log Chart

I’m undecided about this Middle East situation. If things escalate in a messy way, which on the face of it, they should, then we are going to go lower, towards that big volume node/cloud bottom at $96k. However, I’m maintaining cautious (irrational?) optimism for now until we start closing in the 12H cloud.

BTC looks extremely resilient so far, considering what has played out. The ‘Digital Gold’ thesis gets stronger with every new shitshow that fails to produce a big sell-off. Not to macro-larp, but I believe the US needs growth, and a war with Iran would send oil to triple digits, which would be a disaster for Trump, Bessent, and friends. Even BlackRock and its portfolio companies are heavily invested in the region, and they need a stable outlook for those investments to pay out.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

User trends continue to shift away from memecoins, favoring DeFi.

The Genlayer Rebrand Goes Live

Genlayer are building a very interesting trust layer for AI that centers around intelligent smart contracts and AI native consensus. In essence, it’s about on-chain legal resolutions for AI-driven commerce. This huge growth area will require AI-native legal infrastructure and conflict resolution to accelerate.

Check out Emiri’s Genlayer primer here for an overview.

Today, they’ve announced their rebrand, which is more than just skin deep. They’re framing it as a global framework for programmable trust. “An embedded court system that doesn’t sleep, that’s super cheap and super fast.”

The high-level goal is to enable permissionless trust within an open agentic commerce system, preventing fragmentation or capture by closed systems.

What’s Next? Wen Token?

Testnet will go live in the coming weeks and host developers and projects building the first-gen AI-native agent commerce applications. There is no word on any TGE yet, but as always, we will keep you posted when that pops up on our radar.

YieldBasis (DeFi)

xFractal (the intelligence layer for narrative-driven markets)

To save you doom scrolling.

Perhaps we were all a little bit too joyful.

It’s honestly very hard to tell where we go from here. I personally decreased risk and will wait until this blows over. Maybe it will last two weeks, maybe until the end of the summer.

Even if things get bad, there’s always an eventual turnaround. As always, the number one goal is surviving and avoiding the risk of ruin.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡