🙏 Market Looks Bleak. But There's Still Hope.

Last Thursday, we mentioned that every bullish thesis has its dark side. In this case, the risk was that the S&P 500 would roll over and fail to break out, which, unfortunately, is precisely what happened.

There’s no point sugarcoating things; if BTC closes back below around $94k, there’s a possibility of it going all the way to range lows at $90k. Then, we have to pray those lows hold.

However, global liquidity is still rising, so the macro picture looks healthy. Michael Howell mentions China as the most significant driver of liquidity at the moment. What we still need to see, though, is the most crucial player, the US Federal Reserve, joining the party. 

As for the DXY (dollar index), it keeps rolling over but might find some short-term footing here 106. We’ll keep watching.

Over the weekend, we saw unusual strength in ETH, possibly fueled by Bybit plugging its $1.4B reserves gap after the hack. ETH strength usually signals incoming doom for the rest of the market, so we better watch out. 

Nevertheless, the tides are changing in favor of ETH as SOL/ETH continues to confirm a long-term top. Unfortunately, Binance is crushing the weekend ETH momentum, selling big chunks of its supply. We simply can’t catch a break in this market.

It’s worth noting that SOL sentiment looks absolutely abysmal (same goes for ETH, by the way) now, while shorts are increasing their exposure. Would be shame if…

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The important bits.

• Pendle (DeFi) - Teases a reward for top 100 vePendle holders

• Shadow (DEX, Sonic) - Reached $160m TVL

• Vana (AI, data) - Announces big upgrades coming up for Vana

• Vana (AI, data) - YZi Labs invests in crypto-AI startup Vana, CZ joins as advisor

• Ramen Finance (Launchpad) - Announces NAV Finance presale

• Hermes (DeFi) - Announces new automated liquidity with Talos

• Yeet (Berachain) - Teases an announcement of “huge Berachain native ponzi”

Even more important bits.

• Canary files for spot HBAR ETF with Nasdaq

• Infini platform was hacked

• Powell says Bitcoin is like gold, but digital

• OX FUN exchange drama develops, while OX confirms withdrawals are functioning

• Saylor’s Strategy has completed a $2 billion offering of convertible notes

• The SEC has officially closed its investigation into Robinhood

Charts and stats of the day.

• Digital asset investment products saw outflows totalling $508m

• Michael Saylor continues to buy above $90k BTC

• Berachain reached number 6 spot by chain TVL

• Ethereum and its L2s are dominating inflows

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SOLUSDT 1W Binance

Solana has been absolutely nuking since that big wick to a new all time high at $295. Of course, being associated with rugging nation states and President Javier Milei’s potential impeachment has not helped the manlet cause. In March we have almost $10bn of supply being unlocked. March 1 is the biggest day.

I think we put in a bottom sometime in the next week, maybe two at most. The purple box looks like a solid bid for * at least * a decent bounce. If Bitcoin shows strength, a move back towards all time high is not off the cards.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Smart-money movements on Solana.

Smart-money movements on Ethereum.

Rivalz Network

$RIZ is one of two decent looking charts today, Rivalz is only 3 days old, but already put in a big pullback and is showing signs of reversal here. The project is building a ‘World Abstraction Layer’, connecting AI agents to digital assets, human interactions and DePIN infrastructure.

Technically, Rivalz is a RollApp on Dymension for settlement and data, paired with an Arbitrum deployment. This dual-chain system links via bridges, balancing rollapp flexibility with Ethereum compatibility. Read more here.

Bittensor’s dTAO is firing up economic activity

The $TAO chart also looks promising today, and newly launched (13 Feb) native token dTAO (dynamic TAO) promises to accelerate economic activity and subnet competition on the decentralised AI juggernaut. Subnets can now launch their own tokens. Watch the latest TAO Talk episode to catch up on what’s coming over there.

New content to study.

• GambleFAI: The Rise of Autonomous Betting Agents

New updates & projects.

• SynFutures Introduces Synthia AI Agent for Twitter-Based Trading

• BearCage (Berachain) - Public sale is now live

• Wassie (Berachain NFT) - Minted out, reveal coming soon

• BroTrade (Berachain perps.)

• C (Sonic DEX)

• Beef’s Finance (Berachain DeFi)

• WeBera Finance (Yield optimizer)

To save you doom scrolling.

I assume our readers don’t listen to LaVape Cabal’s financial advice, do they?

Unfortunately, the only hopium for today is the one for the bears. Why? Well, Capo is calling for a bounce. Steady lads…

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡