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GM, D-Day is here.
The question we’ve been asking for months now shall be answered soon: will $60K become the macro bottom for Bitcoin?
For now, BTC is struggling just under the previous cycle all-time highs, scaring everyone yet again and pushing low $58K. This is all either another episode of fake-outs, as we mentioned previously, or, upon a failed monthly close, a real breakdown. Remains to be seen, the clock is ticking.
Long-term holders and accumulators mostly have no problem seeing this zone as deep value, even if BTC cascades down to the low fifties. This is clearly evidenced by the chart showing Bitcoin supply breakdown by long- and short-term holders.
Whether or not BTC succeeds tho hold $60K on the monthly or not, the more important question from here is how long the following “chopsolidation” takes. Exactly as Horse mentions here: “Being close to the bottom in Bitcoin and being close to the return of momentum are two very different things”. Again, I’d say we have nowhere to rush as we enter the holiday season.
What’s interesting to note here is that volatility has passed its peak on this current downside move, meaning the sellers are running out of steam. These are very good signs, even though BTC admittedly still looks like trash at the moment.
Let’s see when BTC manages to flip back above $60K, and especially $63K, the level we previously used as a bias indicator for a larger bounce. The same applies going forward.
Let’s check on the prices again tomorrow, as we finally enter July, and see what happens on the macro front, especially with Thursday’s US PMI data.
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The important bits.
Avantis announces support for $7.5 trillion forex markets, announcement here
Privy devs can now issue cards to spend directly from their connected DeFi vaults, read here
MegaETH is now live on the Uniswap Web App, read here
Even more important bits.
Hyperliquid follows Bybit onto Singapore's "naughty" list, explained here
JPMorgan says digital assets are moving into the core of the US financial system, read here
California Governor Newsom announces a partnership with Anthropic to bring Claude to all counties, read here
CZ: “I went to prison for Binance having weak KYC… Hyperliquid has no KYC”, read here
Grant Cardone says Cardone Capital is adding Bitcoin at $59,000 and now holds over 2,700 BTC, read here
Coinbase partners with Spiko for instant stablecoin entry and exit for funds, read here
Ukraine is reportedly considering creating a national strategic crypto reserve, read here
Charts and stats of the day.
Tokenized euro stablecoins have plateaued at around $750 million, chart here
Pumpfun bought back & burned $2,995,827 worth of PUMP, read here
Brix has distributed over $400k in yield since launch, chart here
The crypto card competition is heating, full chart of protocols here
Memecoins represented 26.4% of all spot DEX volume on Solana yesterday, chart here
Chainlink's holder count is increasing, with LINK adding over 8K non-empty wallets in just 5 days, read here
Maple Institutional Secured Lending is up to $190M and $175M of them is already utilized in loans, chart here
Holder statistic for the ANSEM airdrops, chart here
Bitmine added 27,084 ETH over the past week, read here
The top 7 tokens with the largest unlocks this week total $97.81M, stats here
Lastly, our daily Telegram bulletin is back! Join in right here and stay on top of everything, every day.
Is Ethena’s comeback possible?
Let’s do something a bit more unusual here, which is kind of a “hopeful critique”. So, ENA is down 60% from its April high, sitting at $0.0754, while every bounce since June has been sold straight into. Not a great look.
Here's the irony, though: Ethena just landed on BlackRock's Aladdin platform, a $20 trillion+ distribution rail, as a home for USDe and its whitelabel stablecoin products. An institutional partnership like this would absolutely send ENA during a bull market, yet ENA hasn't moved on it.
Why? It might be simply because Aladdin is a distribution channel, not a demand driver. It puts USDe in front of allocators but doesn't force them to buy, so it doesn't increase USDe's total supply. Right now, USDe also isn't competitive on yield. ETH staking sits around 3-4%, T-bills pay roughly 4.5%, and USDC yields 4-5% in DeFi. USDe has no edge, which is the most likely reason why its supply has collapsed 70% from its $14 billion October peak to roughly $4.46 billion.
Worse for ENA specifically: it's a pure governance token with zero fee claim on USDe growth. Even if Aladdin works, ENA holders don't see a cent unless the Foundation redirects treasury yield - which isn't happening yet.
There’s the critique, now for the hopes. Ethena is obviously a high-quality project, but it’s tormented by continuous VC unlocks (the next one is big, coming up July 5th; here’s the schedule), with 38% of the supply left to enter circulation by 2028, and, as mentioned, the ENA token has no value accrual mechanism.
The reason why this one remains on the radar is simple - if we see USDe supply grow as we enter the next cycle, combined with a possible fee switch, buybacks, you name it, for the ENA token, then we could see a pretty sharp reversal. It’s a big if for now, but I’ll keep this one on the list.
Tune in for our next show with Squid:
The AI news & updates.
GPT-5.6 Sol launches, OpenAI's most powerful model ever, but only ~20 partners can use it, read here
Anthropic Mythos 5 cleared for US critical infrastructure; Fable 5 consumer release imminent, read here
Grok 4.5 enters private beta at SpaceX and Tesla, matches Opus performance, read here
Quantum computing executive orders accelerate Q-Day timeline, read here
Michael Novogratz explains why AI backlash accelerates fast, listen here
OpenClaw is now on iOS + Android, read here
Apple is releasing security updates early, breaking from its practice of bundling them with iOS releases, over AI cybersecurity concerns, read here
MetaAI announces non-invasive brain-to-text decoder research: Brain2Qwerty v2, read here
China debuts its biggest AI model withou NVIDIA chips, read here
AI Charts and stats of the day.
AI economy hit $110B revenue in 2025; agents consume 1,200x more compute than chat, read here
AWS raises NVIDIA GPU prices ~20%, read here
x402 hits 500,000 daily transactions (5x increase from prior periods), read here
a16z’s Marc Andreessen says, “Doctor ChatGPT is a better doctor than 99% of doctors”, read here
The AI tutorials of the day.
How to save on AI using the Chinese AI stack, read here
AI Articles/Videos of the day.
How much water does AI actually use? Watch here
This is the moment Chinese AI beat American AI, watch here
Watch Plasma’s crypto expert debate 10 traditional bankers below (spoiler alert: crypto wins).
And of course, don’t forget to get your Plasma One crypto card here.
General Intuition (AI that doesn't just reason but acts) - Raised $320 million
Very wise words.
There’s a bit less to talk about today, as all eyes are on the monthly close and the FUD narratives are starting to lack the punch they used to have. The market is coming to terms with Saylor selling the bottom, the Iran war is still unsettled, and it’s unclear if the SPX fails over the summer or continues higher straight from here.
Once the puzzle pieces start falling back together, we’ll make sure to be there. We simply keep monitoring.
If this was useful, forward it to one person sitting on the sidelines right now. That's how this thing grows. MUCH appreciated.
Hix0n 🫡
