💪 No Pain, No Gain: Where's The Low?

GM, let’s try to make sense of this mess.

It’s becoming clearer and clearer that Trump simply doesn’t care about the markets. His tariff strategy is now fully deployed, and we’re starting to see the effects. Remember, Trump said it himself, “…the pain will be worth it.”

The other thing to keep in mind here is that the first 6-12 months of Trump’s economy are still considered Biden’s leftovers. Which means? He doesn’t care if everything gets nuked—unless there’s a shot at a bullish turnaround later.

Looking at the SPX, the concerns we mentioned last week are becoming a reality - things are looking pretty damn heavy.

That’s the pain, so what about the gain? If the indexes spiral down further, along with an increase in job cuts (already starting to see chances for unemployment rise, sparked by DOGE’s firing spree), the inflation will go down, and the Fed will be cleared to cut rates. Today, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent already said: "…we're set on bringing interest rates down.".

It’s no time for cheers yet, though. The first-rate cuts might come only during June’s FOMC, not earlier. This tells us that even though we’re already going through a mini bear market, it doesn’t necessarily mean the second half of the year will be the same.

For Bitcoin, the last line is basically right here around these prices. So, if we see another bounce that doesn’t get retraced and manages to get above $94-95k, the low might be in.

Neverthless, if the indexes continue lower, it’s easy to expect Bitcoin to head back down to the 70s, maybe even cut lower on a wick basis. But if we survive, there’s a good chance we'll reap the benefits later.

No pain, no gain.

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The important bits.

• Tanssi (DeFi) - Participate in TANSSI token sale tomorrow, valuation same as VC round

• Superseed (L2) - Join today’s Superseed live stream

• Ionet (DePIN) - Features IO token co-staking capabilities

• mETH Protocol (L2) - Supercharge your yield with Init Capital looping hooks

• Vana (AI, data) - Don’t miss the Vana space with CZ

• AAVE (DeFi) - Now live on Sonic

Even more important bits.

• Ricardo Salinas, with a net worth of $5.8B, reveals he’s “pretty much all in” on crypto

• SPX erases $3.4 trillion of value post Trump election

• SEC offers eligible staff $50k to voluntarily resign or retire

• Brandon Gill introduces bill to put President Trump on the $100 note

Charts and stats of the day.

• More than $1 billion liquidated from the market in the past 24 hours

BTCUSD 1D Coinbase

BTC local bottoms have mostly happened front-loaded towards the beginning of the month. It’s been pretty reliable, extending back a year to that 5 March ‘24 local bottom above. I’d expect to see a bottom put in this week, if it’s not in already. I’m still moving in slow motion, given the nasty PVP market regime.

We nuked again yesterday to close a big CME gap at $84k. Trump’s crypto summit happens on Friday. Either we put in a low before then, or it’s another sell-the-news event, and we get a low around the time media coverage starts. I put a potential breakout retest on the chart above—50/50 or lower odds on that, given it’s all the way down at $72k.

It could be that we bounce for a few weeks and then make the trip down again to tag that level. We’re pretty oversold across stocks (tariff pain) and crypto at this point, so my base case is expect a reversal soon. The chart looks a lot like the early July selloff last year, when we reversed with a 1D bull div.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Smart-money movements on Solana.

Smart-money movements on Ethereum.

UniversalX: Best place to farm Sonic airdrop?

The Sonic airdrop might be the juiciest one and perhaps the only one comparable to Hyperliquid.

The great thing about this one is that you can now trade any Sonic token with assets from any chain (yes, even SOL) on UniversalX. Plus, UniversalX is available both for Android and iOS.

We all know how tiresome the endless back-and-forth bridging is. Might be a time to make our lives a bit easier while preparing for the S stimmy check. Check out the demo below.

Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.

Tanssi: Enabling permissionless shared security for decentralized networks.

Research

The solution for Ethereum’s security? Tanssi.

Think of it as the Shopify for decentralized networks. It’s making life easier for devs by sorting all the tech stuff like block production and data availability, while giving them the security they need with a helping hand from symbiotic.

Read More →

Henlo (Berachain meme) - Now live

To save you doom scrolling.

😭.

Just as I finished writing today’s commentary, this video popped up on my timeline. They indeed are describing the same exact plan. Survive.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡