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GM frens, get ready to get a bit confused. Things are changing day by day.
And with them, the outlook for 2026, of course. Let’s talk short-term first, which looks fine for a BTC bounce if it manages to close above $84K. The weekly stochastic oscillator will cross to the upside, meaning a bounce is highly likely at that point. It’s perfectly explained here, by the way.
The main question now is: will the bounce fail around $100K, indicating a dead cat a further downside, or do we flip $107K and pivot to full bulla mode? We certainly hope for the latter; we’ll just have to keep a close eye on it.
What’s kinda risky (but also maybe bullish, as explained below) is the fact that Investment Managers now have close to 100% exposure to the stock market. Who’s left to push then?
Fortunately, I think there’s always more money ready to be deployed, and the short term looks promising, historically speaking. Usually, when the S&P 500 is down for 3 days in a row after hitting an all-time high, it saw the S&P 500 rally 83% of the time 4 days later, 10 years in a row.
Then again, the main FUD factor is currently Japan going full hawk style mode, planning to raise rates on Friday to the highest level since 1995. Not-so-fun fact: the latest rate rises by the Japanese were usually followed by a 30% drawdown. Not ideal, but doesn’t have to happen.
Yet another risk is the rising unemployment rate in the US, which has hit 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. If you remember, that was pretty close to a final market top.
In the short term, I won't be surprised by bearish data, surprises, wild swings, and further confusion. Let`s hope to flip that magical $107K level and roll higher. If that happens, the likelihood of Bitwise predicting the end of the 4-year cycle, with BTC setting a new high in 2026 increases.
I know most of us need a good boost for our bags, so let’s see how things unfold. All the best, frens.
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The important bits.
Neutrl featured in new Serenity Research article, read here
Surf launched an x402 server on Solana with t54ai, read here
Pyth explains its path to institutional adoption at Breakpoint, watch here
Aave will dominate in 2026, read the explainer here
Euler lending stack has arrived at Hyperliquid powered by HypurrFi, read here
MegaETH token rolled out on mainnet, see here
Kamino introduces the “Next Chapter”, read the full article here
Trove point season 1 is now live, join and earn points here
Even more important bits.
Today’s bulletin:
Oh, well, shit… Let`s hope these data are completely and utterly false.
Telemetry data of the day.
Top trending tokens for the last 24h:
If you want to access more of this type of data and trade freshly graduated tokens on PumpFun or Bonk, visit Telemetry here (it’s free).
SPACE (The first leveraged prediction market on Solana) -Announces public sale
Infrared (Berachain DeFi) - IR token is now live
Theoriq (Autonomous DeFi yield, AI)
Realize this before it`s too late.
Honestly, the outlook for 2026 is somewhat concerning at this point. A lot can happen. And I mean A LOT.
We will simply monitor all the important factors and keep you up to date on a daily basis. Lock in!
Hix0n 🫡
