🙏 Saylor Saved BTC Again. Higher From Here?

GM, it’s looking good, bruv.

BTC is holding above our previously mentioned $91k level like a champ, and even though it wouldn’t be surprising to see the $95k zone act as a resistance with Bitcoin pulling back to around $88k, for now it looks pretty damn strong.

I’m not exactly sure how of this buying pressure was caused by Saylor aping another $1.4b since April 21st, but I’m also not complaining. It would be nice if he continued like this and liquidated the $4.5b shorts sitting just around $100k.

Since last week, we have started to place a lot of importance on the USDT dominance chart, which is continuously dipping. As long as this continues, there’s more upside to BTC. Once this chart finds its footing, expect BTC to start to look weaker.

Moreover, Bitcoin seems to brush off the usually problematic headlines, such as Trump saying there will be no changes to tariffs today, or North Korea deploying troops to Ukraine.

On the bearish side, keep in mind that indexes such as SPX are climaxing their bounces, and it would make sense to see at least a little pullback this or next week. Will it affect Bitcoin as much as it did at the beginning of this month, since we currently have a higher correlation to gold? Remains to be seen.

Volatility is undoubtedly on the way this week, though. We’ve got PCE data coming up Wednesday, jobless claims and manufacturing ISM on Thursday, and the U.S. unemployment rate on Friday. These data points will influence the rate decision and overall tone of May’s FOMC.

If I had to guess, I think Powell will still stand firmly during May (see Polymarket odds) and leave rates unchanged, while pivoting in June, finally returning to rate cuts (currently a 98% chance here). That said, a surprise cut on May’s meeting would certainly provide a good upside. Let’s see.

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The important bits.

• Berachain’s big Boyco unlock is coming up May 6th

• Felix Protocol by Charlie on Hyperliquid writes open letter to Ethena

• Hyperliquid launches a new system to deploy spot coins

• Layer Zero launches new airdrop season, read more here

Even more important bits.

• Coinbase to launch Bitcoin Yield Fund on May 1, offering 4-8% annualized returns

• Bessent says many countries proposed “good trade deal offerings”

• A study found AI agents from top tech firms failed basic workplace tasks

• Japan confirms they are demanding the full withdrawal of US tariffs

• Trump says tariff money will be used to reduce or eliminate income taxes

• Stripe CEO says the company is finally testing its stablecoin product

Charts and stats of the day.

• Digital asset investments inflows totalled $3.4bn, the largest since December 2024

• M2 money supply chart keeps growing rapidly

• U.S. Banks are currently facing $482b in unrealized losses

• The cumulative Hyperliquid volume grows at an exponential rate

• DeFi TVL has exceeded $100B for the first time since March

• ETH ETF's was $157.1M this week - largest weekly inflow since February

• Indian M2 money supply exploded upwards

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BTCUSDT Binance Futures 6H

I’m using Velo today for the funding & OI data. We can see that BTC Open Interest (OI) has been trending up since the $74k bottom in early April. OI tracks all positions, long and short. Looking at funding, we can get an idea of the balance of positioning. OI is going up, but funding is trending down (negative) as price heads into the main resistance (red line) at $96,500. So we can infer that the market consensus is to open short hedges or bet on downside/rejection from this big level.

Importantly, we also have a big spot bid at the moment that seems to be originating from Binance. The Asian session has recently been the source of the biggest BTC upside moves. And we’ve heard Binance has been advising nation states on how to accumulate spot BTC.

Spot bid + increasing short interest is a recipe for a short squeeze. Once again, let us pray. A high timeframe close above $96.5k (1D / 3D) would be strong confirmation of further upside and opens up a move to new highs. A loss of the Yearly Open ($93.5k) means we are probably looking at a move towards that support ledge at $82- $84k.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Will the XMR pump spark privacy season?

If you spent any amount of time scrolling CT today, you surely noticed the excitement around the Monero pump. Even though it’s likely caused by this hacker washing his stolen BTC funds, there’s a nice possibility of a privacy narrative comeback.

One chart that pops in mind is recently listed NIL, native token of the Nillion chain. It’s not looking bad at all here, possibly finding a bottom. Will keep this one on my radar.

• Bera Reserve (Berachain) - BRR token launching next week

• Twin Finance (Berachain RWAs)

• Genesy (Hyperliquid gaming)

• Kuma (Berachain)

To save you doom scrolling.

Now this is what we want to see. Higher.

Lately, I’m increasingly interested in PURR, Hyperliquid’s original first memecoin.

Not only is this beauty deployed by the Hyperliquid team and provided a massive point boost during the last HYPE airdrop, but it’s sitting at a $62 m market cap, finishing a rounding bottom.

If we bet on Hyperliquid being the next Solana (I certainly do), we can easily compare PURR to BONK, except this one will benefit from upcoming Assistance Fund buybacks and is deflationary.

Not financial advice.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡