🤔 Survival Mode: How Long Will It Take?

GM.

Yes, everything looks absolutely horrendous.

The SPX is not reacting all that well to its bullish divergences, while BTC dipped back below $80k shortly after the NYC open. For now, it seems likely Bitcoin will test at least around $76k. The bright side is that it’s not that far away from here.

Let’s deal some hopium while everyone cries in red PnL (sorry, I know things are tough). Right now, crypto sentiment has reached all-time lows in fear. Extremes like these always reverse, whether that means continuing the bull run or at least a few months long breather period along with bounces across the board.

In fact, the last time the sentiment was this bleak was during the Covid-19 crisis, and that’s quite something.

Meanwhile, essential elements are moving in the background, such as the M2 money supply. So far, this lagging indicator has never failed Bitcoin. Is this time truly different? Raoul Paul offers a good breakdown of this perspective here.

Lastly, it seems Saylor won’t let the opportunity to buy BTC around $80k slip by, announcing a $21b raise to acquire more sats. Plus, the White House director of digital assets announced they are indeed "finding ways to acquire more Bitcoin.”

As Degen Spartan says in his latest blog: just survive. Better days are coming, but not for those who wipe their whole portfolio by being overleveraged.

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The important bits.

• Rex Shares and Osprey Funds file for MOVE ETF

• Japan cuts Bitcoin capital gains tax from 50% to 20%

• Singapore Exchange to list Bitcoin perpetual futures

• Scott Bessent says stablecoins are the future of US dollar

• Spain's bank, BBVA, receives approval to offer Bitcoin & Ethereum trading

• Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade on Sepolia faced disruptions from attacker

Charts and stats of the day.

• Curve's monthly active users just hit an all-time high

• The total loss of the Trump family project WLFI's current portfolio has reached $110 million

• Digital asset investment products see $876M in outflows

Crypto taxes? Absolute pain.

Sifting through receipts, crunching numbers — it's a yearly ritual of suffering. Throw crypto into the mix, and it’s full-blown chaos.

Now you’re juggling transactions across wallets, flipping between CEXes and DEXes, and wondering if that airdrop was a win or just a taxable headache. And let’s not even start on staking rewards…

Well, it doesn’t necessarily have to suck.

Crypto Tax Calculator is built for degens like you. With over 1000+ integrations, a custom shitcoin pricing oracle, and the superpower to handle your on-chain terror.

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SAM/VIRTUAL Uniswap 3D Chart

Here’s a fun project that actually looks like it wants to trend higher. Bullish candle configurations are currently as rare as unicorn tears, so this was a nice find amidst some very red watchlists. Also, AI Agents x Robotics is a meta that might well take off when the market turns around. @RobotsDotFun is the first robot AI agent launchpad from FrodoBots AI, and the chart above is $SAM, their first agent. Their discord is a good place to start to find out more about the project. There’s a drive-to-earn program and various competitions to win $SAM tokens.

PA-wise, I’d look to buy a pullback to the purple box above. Bitcoin doesn’t look like it’s quite finished dishing out pain yet (end of the month I think this changes). Another BTC dump probably puts you inside that box somewhere near the red line.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

DeFi & RWA taking the lead.

Hyperliquid value zone.

Not only is HYPE currently one of the most shorted coins, but it’s also building a nice bullish divergence just as it hit support last night.

We’re currently in a market where fundamentals are starting to matter again (see mindshare stats), and where investors look for long term value. From a protocol revenue perspective, Hyperliquid is one of the absolute leaders, sitting at rank four just behind Tron and Circle.

Moreover, if we calculate the P/E ratio considering Hyperliquid's $1b annualized revenue, the fair value is around $125 per HYPE.

Of course, the road toward these targets will be bumpy, but if we believe in crypto long-term, there’s no point in being long-term bearish on one of this cycle's absolute unicorns.

For more information about everything Hyperliquid, subscribe to blocmates on X and watch our weekly show with Grant.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡