📏 Week Size = Huge

🗞 Market commentary.

GM gamblers—are you throwing your chips on Ansem or Tate?

Despite a mere moderate pullback in the crypto markets, we’re already witnessing heavyweight accounts calling each other “mullato fucks” and n-words. This is interesting, as these levels of timeline fighting usually take place deeper in the retracement.

As entertaining as it is, we must remain focused. Today is FOMC day, and everyone and their gramma awaits Fed Chief Powell’s latest prophecies. Will today’s presser mark the bottom as it has since December 2023,  or will the script flip because everyone expects it? Too bad crystal balls aren’t real, the only thing we can count on is the 67,000 dollars Bitcoin level: if we start closing below that, it’s highly possible BTC visits the low 60s area and attempts to bottom around 64. Steady lads…

Remember, a dull, choppy summer could be a blessing in disguise from a long-term perspective. Lastly, a prolonged bull run stretching into 2025 would align perfectly with Bitcoin’s four-year cycle and the global liquidity cycle.

In times like these, it’s extremely important to keep the bigger picture in mind. Don’t lose your step.

📊 Luke’s Chart of the Day

BTC/USDT 1D Log Chart

On April 24th, I made the first blue squiggle, and everything was going so well until June 6th, when our main character started posting bear porn to half a million followers, and things have somewhat fallen apart since then. Price double topped just below $72k and refused to go to the top of the range. RSI looks a little weak, too - ideally, it should have run higher before the price rolled over. We are now sitting on midrange and 100 DMA support. Realistically, this all suggests flagging momentum and more consolidation is possible or likely over the summer. This is borne out on the macro/liquidity side, where the MOVE index has bounced to the upside (I don’t think it will hold above 95, and lower is better), and DXY has done the same, back above the uptrend (not ideal).

So now we have the brand new bear squiggle (2.0) - if we’re not going to the range top, we’ll likely go to the range bottom. I’ve left squiggle 1.0 in for now - if we don’t turn it around by Friday, out it comes.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

🔥 Degen corner.

Global Liquidity = Crypto Cycle

As we slowly enter the second phase of the bull run, it’s worth starting to track the global liquidity chart, combining the data from the US Federal Reserve, People’s Bank of China, ECB, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England. 

The bottom and start of the current cycle were marked around October 2022. Given that the average liquidity cycle spans 5-6 years, we’re likely at the midpoint now. Let’s keep this in mind, I will be monitoring the liquidity situation more closely from now onwards and will inform you in upcoming newsletters.

👀 DeFi insights.

The important bits.

• Mantle (L2) - Integrates Vertex into Mantle ecosystem - read

• Unstoppable (DeFi) - Use automatic DCA to profit from the market dumps - read

• Smilee (DeFi) - Earn 18% boosted APY paid in ARB - read

• Skillful AI (NFT) - Partners with HyperGPT - read

• Remilia (NFT) - Fang unveils plans for next steps of Remilia Corporation - read

• Monad (L1) - Will be live on Phantom on day one - read

📰 DeFi news.

Even more important bits.

• Layer Zero unveils another massive sybil cluster - read

• Andrew Tate puts out a message to the crypto community - read

• EU's innovation hub says layer twos, mixers, privacy coins are dangerous - read

• US CPI inflation data come in softer - read

🫠 ICYMI.

Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.

Unlocking Bitcoin's Hidden Potential: The Future of BTC Fi and DeFi

Podcast

And it's live! The introductory episode of A blocmates Orange is now available!

Talking DeFi on Bitcoin, the possibilities of BTC-Fi, its opportunity, and much, much more.

Tune in on Spotify | YouTube →

🐥 Tweet of the day.

To save you doom scrolling.

People with wild imaginations and ideas are out there in the CT land…

🦍 And finally…

As I write this, Tate has just invited Ansem for a podcast. I must admit, this is one hell of an entertaining timeline.

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