🗒️ 3 Volatility Events To Watch This Week:

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GM, it seems like something is indeed happening this time.

Yesterday, we said BTC isn’t concerned by the Iran/Israel war, but today, it’s pretty clear it cares about the U.S. actually joining it. Whether this is about actual nukes (‘cough cough’ see this) or about controlling the oil supply (ehm, see this), the real question on all our minds is: “How will this affect our sophisticated shitcoin portfolios?”

Well, if there ever were a week for a proper panic dump, it would be this week. We’ve got an FOMC meeting tomorrow, followed by two big options expiration dates on the 18th and 20th. Then it’s the weekend, and the suits will have their portfolios ready and rebalanced, just in time for the USS Nimitz to arrive at the coast of Iran, while TradFi markets are closed.

So, what now? Either we see some sort of resolution by next week… or things escalate. Early signs of downside pressure are already here, but confirmation comes if BTC closes below $105k on the daily. On top of that, the S&P 500 is starting to look a little tired, too.

On the other hand, if things calm down and BTC travels and closes back above $106.5k, then it’s all good in the hood. Which one happens, I can’t tell, and I would advise everyone to stay safe and off leverage; things might get volatile.

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The important bits.

• Mira Network brings 50 GAIB NFTs to the community, get yours here

• Fomo app now supports all VertigoDex tokens, learn more here

• Premia Blue publishes the weekly Alpha Newsletter, read here

• Berachain’s Smokey announces exciting upcoming changes, read here

• Plasma announces deposits are now limited to $1 billion, read more here

• PumpFun got suspended on X

Even more important bits.

• Watch Grant blocmates guide on leveraging new ecosystems here

• Thailand’s cabinet approved a personal tax exemption on crypto sales

• Binance teases upcoming Fartcoin spot listing

• US & UK officially sign documents to finalize new trade deal

• Bybit is launching its first Solana-based DEX, Byreal

Charts and stats of the day.

• Hedge Funds are loading up on Utility Stocks at the fastest pace in 5 years

• Foreign inflows to US assets are re-accelerating

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HYPEUSDC Hyperliquid 1D Log Chart

I’m a huge HYPE bull, but the 1D chart does not look great here. Momentum is rolling over—see MACD and Awesome Oscillator at bottom—and we have an RSI bear div, also signalling weakening momentum. Rising wedges tend to break down. Everything is holding for now. This is just a heads-up to manage risk.

The first support is the old all-time high at ~$35, with the main Point of Control support and yearly VWAP at $24. If BTC breaks down towards $93k then that main support has a decent chance of being tagged. That would probably be a great entry, because I don’t think this Middle East sabre-rattling will last too long.

BTC is holding above the 12H cloud for now, but if we start closing in there, watch out below. Here’s a chart for that scenario.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Solana smart-money movements:

Ethereum smart-money movements:

To save you doom scrolling.

This is actually true. ETH is becoming an existential danger—recommended watch.

Looking at this chart, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the markets reset over the summer again. Given everything happening, it’s pretty hard to see BTC rising above ATHs during the next weeks.

Nevertheless, as is tradition, everything can change in a blink—or more precisely, in one Trump tweet. We will simply continue monitoring the situation.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡