🔻 BTC Key Levels + FOMC Scenarios to Watch

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GM, the bears are wildin’ again.

Just another day in the 2025 bull cycle. Ansem is making his weekly top calls, instantly changing the mood of the whole timeline, bears are gloating on every 1% move down, and the rest are busy gambling streamer coins (more on that below).

As always, let’s keep a cool head. Price map’s below, but let’s start from the top:

The S&P 500 just closed above 6,600 points, the highest close in history. Global liquidity is constantly making new all-time highs. US retail sales are rising (recession callers in shambles). The rates will be cut by at least 25 basis points, with three more cuts ahead. The dollar index is continually dumping. The business cycle is about to be prolonged well into 2026. Does this sound like a bear market to you?

Bitcoin clearly has some catching up to do. I agree with Jack here. Now, as Bessent says, the 25bps cut is likely already priced in. So, I wouldn’t be surprised to see markets pump higher this week, to make everyone who is shitting their pants waiting for FOMC cozy again.

Later, I think we have a good chance to see weakness into at least half of October. It isn’t for sure, but check out this price map for indices, or this S&P 500 weekly cycle breakdown from Bob Loukas. I can see something like this happening, with fairly high odds.

We can see early signs of incoming volatility already in the VIX index, which has been pumping for a few days now. As I said yesterday, many bodies will get carried out this week.

Now, what should we focus on tomorrow, on FOMC day? Since the 25bps cut is already priced in, maximum focus will be put on the Fed’s forward guidance. That said, expect the most volatility and likely short-term direction to be based on what Powell says during the presser.

In summary, for the short term, we want BTC to remain above around $115k to see another push upwards. If $115k starts to break, especially if you see $112k break, it’s reasonable to expect a few more weeks of bearishness before resumed upside, with a likely timeline into half of October.

For the longer term, please keep this chart and message in mind. Please.

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The important bits.

• Saga explains how their stablecoin fixes stablecoin DeFi problems, read here

• Lombard announces BARD airdrop claims, check your allo here

• OpenSea announces pre-TGE rewards, check yours and farm here

• EdgeX announces a fix to the data reconciliation issue, affected users, read here

• Bonk introduces project Wings with USD1, read more

• Beezie’s Strategic Fundraise led by Moonrock Capital is officially closed, read here

• Ethena confirms the fee switch parameters have been met, read here

• Phygitals will announce a major vaulting partnership today, read here

• Helius has raised over $500 to launch a $SOL-focused treasury company, read here

• Valyr announces partnership with Eigen Layer, read here

• Chainlink is now on TikTok, read here

• Polymarket has launched prediction markets on company earnings, read here

Even more important bits.

• Metamask USD stablecoin is now live, read more

• Alex Becker has made over $200K in creator fees in less than three hours, read here

• Base announces a bridge to Solana, read here

• Trump says companies can now report earnings every 6 months, read here

• Galaxy Digital has helped Forward Industries complete the purchase of 6,822,000 SOL, read here

• MoonPay has acquired Meso to build a payment network, read here

• Hyperliquid validators have chosen Native Markets to issue USDH, read here

• South Korea’s exchange Upbit is set to launch its “GIWA” chain, read here

• Circle announces native USDC for Hyperevm, read here

Charts and stats of the day.

• Bagwork guys generated $100k a day on PumpFun, read here

• Bitcoin supply on exchanges has fallen to a 7-year low, chart here

• Ethena-backed Based protocol breaks into top 10 projects by revenue, read here

• Stablecoin supply flowing into Solana at a crazy rate, read here

Don’t miss out on the daily blocmates news bulletin with Gaz! Tune in here.

Become your own bank.

ether.fi Cash is the real-world spending product we DeFi natives have been waiting for for so long.

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• Pay off your debt with yield + cashback: earn 9% on stables, 7% on ETH, 2% on BTC, with HYPE and SOL on the way.

• Use borrow mode: 70% LTV against your whole portfolio, “only borrow, never sell”

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Telemetry data of the day.

PumpFun + Heaven + Bonk trending tokens for the last 24h:

If you want to access more of this type of data and trade freshly graduated tokens on PumpFun of Bonk, visit Telemetry here (it`s free).

Streamer coins.

As you might have noticed, we don’t like to write about coins that are hundreds of % up on they daily. However, when a new viral project hits the narrative and sits at -80%, it deserves attention. I’m personally interested only in two streamer meta projects:

• Bagwork

• Streamer

• dm.fun (Launchpad) - new trailed video released, watch here

• SP3ND (Spend on Amazon without KYC)

• Masterswap (Hyperliquid aggregator) - Reached $100m volume

• Sentient (AI)

• Retake (PumpFun streaming competitor on Base)

To save you doom scrolling.

Incentive is incentive.

Agree with CBS here. Don’t get bearholed, even if we go lower well into October. I do not believe the top is in. I can be wrong, of course. Make your bets. Onwards.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡