😱 Don't Panic! Unless This Happens:

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GM, this is Bart’s world; we’re just living in it.

Yesterday’s Bart candle took a swing and violated the $62,000 level. Now, it’s crucial to put this price action into context—especially if you're feeling the panic. The bull thesis has been shelved temporarily, but remember, we’re primarily dealing with a range-bound market.

Given the current backdrop for crypto, such as rising global liquidity, rising M2 money supply, continued weakness in the dollar, and the fact that we now have Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, this all smells and feels more like September 2020 than anything (and, ehm, Trump just released a 4th NFT collection). 

And if you remember those times, you know very well that many traders got carried out in caskets right before the big show started.

Now, back to short-term price action, today is basically the Super Bowl for risk assets: Nvidia earnings come out 4:20 PM ET. If they miss, well… we might need to brace ourselves again. On the other hand, this could also pump Bitcoin over 62K, again…

Learn more on the possible outcomes of this in Luke’s stream here!

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BTCUSD Coinbase 12H Log Chart

It is not great that the price was rejected at the 200-day MA ($63,500), making the big lower high yesterday. $BTC has some work to do here to reclaim the yearly VWAP (blue line) at $59,500.

After that I’d like to see a weekly close above $61k to remain bullish, otherwise the high timeframe market structure starts to skew towards increasing downward momentum.

Lower lows have a history of not holding on retests in mid-March to present consolidation. That would mean that a trip to $43k may be on the cards if we test $57,500 again and it fails to hold. 

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Why DeFi? 

Vitalik sparked a massive debate around DeFi with his tweet debating the ouroboros nature of decentralized lending markets and yield. Even though his stance got blown out of proportion, because he clearly isn’t against all of DeFi, if there’s a polar opposite of Vitalik, it might just be Andre Cronje.

In preparation for the big Fantom transition into Sonic, Andre blessed us with a blog post praising DeFi use-cases, with which I can’t help but agree.

DeFi democratizes access to industries previously unreachable for a normal person. When else did we have the option to own basically a digital revenue-sharing piece of the banking market, like it is with Aave, for example? 

Definitely a recommended read.

Lastly, Sonic will launch its testnet next week, and supposedly, there’s an option to earn points.

If you’re interested, follow them here, and of course, read this newsletter as we cover all the news when they arrive.

The important bits.

• Eigen Layer (LRT) - Introduces Permissionless Token Support Mainnet Launch

• Hyperliquid (L1) - Leads the volume across all perp. DEXs

• eBTC (DeFi) - Get paid by borrowing Bitcoin 

• Y2K (DeFi) - Weekly report covering the transition to Fractality

• Gamma Swap (DeFi) - Token generation event in 3 days

Even more important bits.

• GambleFi analytics now available on Tanzanite

• Rabby wallet updates swap & approve mechanism

• Vitalik Buterin shares a new Ethereum Foundation spending breakdown

• Maker Rebrands to Sky, Rolls Out New Stablecoin and Governance Token

• OpenSea received a wells notice from the SEC

• Pavel Durov, Telegram CEO, was released from custody

Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.

Podcast

Grant brings on Joey from DYAD as they dive into the unique aspects of Kerosene, the DYAD protocol, and its innovative approach to stablecoin design.

Tune in on Spotify | YouTube →

To save you doom scrolling.

For the sake of our industry, next time we’re pumping, we better stfu…

Don’t let boredom drive you to mindless clicking. Sometimes, the best move is to do nothing, even when your brain pushes you to act.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡