💎 Ethereum ETFs Will Succeed - Change My Mind

GM, and happy ETH ETF day to those who celebrate.

So, here we go—the SEC has greenlit the S1 registration statements, ushering in the first-ever spot Ethereum ETFs to start trading in the U.S. today. Predictions say these ETFs will pull in $750 million to $1 billion in monthly inflows for the first five to six months. Heavy hitters like Grayscale, Franklin, VanEck, Bitwise, 21Shares, Fidelity, iShares, and Invesco are in the mix, with most entrusting Coinbase as the custodian.

While Ethereum ETFs might not rake in as much as Bitcoin ETFs, they’re still expected to attract significant demand, potentially hitting $5 to $8 billion in assets. The key takeaway: a lot less money can trigger a lot more bullishness in ETH’s case.

Let’s see how things play out this week as we watch the Farside Ethereum ETF dashboard—our questions should be answered soon.

As far as BTC price action goes, it seems we might have a little pullback Tuesday on our hands. Overall, nothing important changed, and we remain in a bullish posture. 

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ETH/USD 1D Aggregated Long/Short Ratio 

I’ve been looking at this data on $BTC recently, and it’s quite bullish. $ETH tells a different short-term story. What we are looking at is aggregated account positioning across major exchanges—long accounts vs. short accounts on the 1D timeframe.

ETH is still very net long here, with a ratio of 2.33 long accounts for each short account. The pattern for previous pumps is very clear, as it is on BTC & Solana. When the ratio trends down towards 1, that is when the sustained pumps begin.

When you are trending down from very long biased positioning and stop halfway, as with the last two pumps shown, you have limited juice to ascend. The market always traps late and consensus-long positioning. In short, we need the ratio to reset to lower than here for a big all-time high and beyond run to kick off. 

NFA as per usual, please always do your own research.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Don’t Get Bamboozled by Imaginary Numbers

Let’s talk about something a little different today. When it comes to trading or stepping into a new swing trade position, we can get bamboozled by our own minds. 

Let’s say you’re bullish on a certain memecoin—take MOG, for example. You have a gut feeling this one’s a printer and will stay strong throughout the bull run. Nevertheless, you tried to buy lower, and it pumped right in front of you. Now, you’re calculating the worth of that imaginary bag you could’ve had if you’d just stepped in.

This slight misstep can make many miss an entire bull run. Missing a perfect entry happens, but don’t let that discourage you from catching the meat of the move. Once the trend is in motion, we most likely catch the meat of it even if the entry wasn’t perfect. 

The dark side of this scenario is trying to match the original bag’s value by chasing “beta coins” or weaker coins that haven’t moved yet. Usually, there’s a reason something isn’t moving or why it’s a beta—it’s weak. 

We don’t have unlimited time in this bull run—focus on winners, trust your gut, and don’t get bamboozled by imaginary numbers and missed entries.

The important bits.

• Kodiak (Berachain DEX) - Partners with Origami Finance - read

• Liquidium (Lending market on Bitcoin) - Airdrops tokens to Ordinals holders - read

• Bettensor (GambleFi, AI) - Prediction on 10 sport outcomes at 99% accuracy - read

• Houdini Swap (Privacy DEX) - Upgrades to V3 - read

• Thales (DeFi) - Introduces zero-fee speed markets - read

Even more important bits.

• Grayscale announces their Ethereum mini trust ticker ETH - read

• Cobie transferred up to 3.64 million $LDO coins to Wintermute - read

• US politicians can now accept donations via Base - read

• $900 billion asset manager Hamilton Lane launches fund on Solana - read

• Avail DA mainnet and AVAIL token go live - read

Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.

Perennial: Is Arbitrum DeFi making a comeback?

Research

This article digs into Perenniall's recent progress and covers the details of a juicy incentive program that the two protocols are bringing to market. Have a look for yourself...

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To save you doom scrolling.

Lesson in there…

This week smells of traps—at least today does. The market underestimating the potential positive impact of ETH ETFs is bullish. Simply put, I would be wary of getting too bearish at this stage of the bull market.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡