🧐 Finding Hope During The Tariff War

PLUS we found a very interesting RWA project on Berachain!

April 03, 2025

GM, fuck them penguins.

At least, that’s what Trump said yesterday, as he put a 10 percent tariff on Heard Island and McDonald Island, which have a population of 0 people and are inhabited only by penguins. 

The penguins fared pretty well compared to others. The Trumpster threw around much harder, hitting reciprocal tariffs left and right yesterday (full list here). The tariffs will go into full effect on April 9th, but negotiations and emergency meetings are already underway from opposite sides, such as South Korea. Here’s a list of important countries and their responses so far.

Bitcoin held up pretty well, considering the stock market carnage. The carnage hit mainly emerging markets, which tariffs will affect the most. Once again, all eyes are on the $76k level.

As unbelievable as it might sound, there's still a case for a little optimism here. The tariff renegotiations and individual country responses might turn into a series of bullish news.

Moreover, markets are digesting the worst-case scenario and are finally more certain about what’s happening. Then, there’s a real threat in credit markets. This is what gets the attention of the Fed, and they will not want to let that happen.

Now, all eyes are on May’s FOMC, Powell’s attitude, and June’s FOMC, which will most likely bring first rate-cuts (May’s probability for cuts is 25%).

Meanwhile, in the background, the massive stablecoin STABLE Act is being passed in the US Senate. It’s wise to remember that we’re still living through the most bullish fundamentals for crypto, and I have zero doubts about whether the markets will. We’re playing a game of survival and timing, not a game of questioning.

Here’s a recommended read on the importance of stablecoins and positioning for the narrative.

Lastly, keep an eye out for DXY here. It’s hovering around a very important level, which has been holding it since 2023.

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Charts and stats of the day.

Crypto taxes? Absolute pain.

Sifting through receipts, crunching numbers — it's a yearly ritual of suffering. Throw crypto into the mix, and it’s full-blown chaos.

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Global M2 / DXY 3D

Sentiment is bad out there—maybe the worst I’ve experienced since the COVID Crash. Ironically, global liquidity is trending higher, driven mostly by Chinese easing and the dollar sell-off. I think the smart thing to do here is wait for a capitulation. At that point, there will be money on the sidelines waiting to be allocated.

A new Michael Howell interview dropped yesterday, and I've pulled out some interesting Bitcoin charts in the thread below.

These are discussed near the end of the interview. Howell’s ranking of factors that drive the Bitcoin price is of particular interest. The gold price is a big one, and that has been uponly for a long while now.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Oh wow. There’s some real interest from Solana’s smart money in securing some rising hot air.

Source: ChainEdge

Ethereum’s smart-money movements are mostly interested in, well, USDC. Note Ethena here also though, the stablecoin narrative and overall DeFi narrative will only grow stronger from here.

Source: ChainEdge

TWIN Finance: Redefining synthetic assets on Berachain.

This one is very interesting to me! Berachain is positioning itself as the modern-age DeFi hub, bringing the 2020 summer vibes back in a much more polished form.

This means Berachain is also uniquely positioned for features such as synthetic assets in the RWA arena.

“Twin Finance goes Live April 4th at 14:00 UTC, a groundbreaking blockchain protocol on Berachain that brings synthetic real-world assets (RWAs) — like stocks, indices, and commodities — into the DeFi space.”

Now this has my attention. TWIN Finance is launching a reward program as we speak, which means we’re early to mint the first synthetic assets, trade, and earn rewards.

Learn more in the article below and feel free to join me!

Now that’s what we need right there!

Will India save us? The rupees are going brrrrr. Let’s hope Mr. Powell gets some inspiration here (pump my bags serv pls much familia).

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡

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