🎢 Higher, Then Lower: Prepare For A Rollercoaster

GM!

Bitcoin markets are still hovering around $95k, and so far, BTC shows little urgency to offer a pullback for latecomers. If that happens, we should watch the $91k level—if breached, it’s possible to see a dip, maybe even to $85k or lower.

Those are big “what ifs,” though. For now, BTC stands firm, and there’s still negative funding across the board, indicating there’s still some juice to charge higher and liquitade few horny bears.

Remember the indices we discussed yesterday. SPX is racing against time here and needs to move higher; otherwise, the dip scenario will become much more likely, and I wouldn’t underestimate it.

Considering both of these scenarios, I wouldn’t be surprised to see BTC charge higher and then initiate the next deeper pullback.

What’s promising and scary at the same time are improvements on ETH’s side. Spot ETF inflows improved for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, but ETH’s position here is promising for a (hopefully) proper bounce:

The ETH/BTC chart is building a bullish divergence at the pico lows. ETH network activity stats have been increasing, with quite a lot of growth lately. Plus, the SEC just met with GrayScale to discuss ETF staking.

With the Ethereum Foundation finally getting their shit together and publishing a 12 month road map with focus on scaling the L1, there’s still a chance this cursed token finds its way towards the light.

Or it pumps, and then the whole market dies, as usual. Let’s see!

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The important bits.

• mETH Protocol’s Fixed Yield Vaults are now at 100% capacity

• Maia DAO integrated Across Protocol intents

• Premia Blue releases a free Options Trading guide

• Ionet releases Container-as-a-Service for GPUs and CPUs

• OpenServ announces AI agents capable of using 10k+ tools

• Jupiter announces Ultra V2, DeFi engine 8 years in the making

• Bearn on Berachain announces new stablecoin yield vaults

• Tari announces upcoming chain reset, read more info here if you’re mining

• Hyperliquid announces fee tiers for May 6th, link your staking wallet here

• Hyperliquid published a new airdrop points page on testnet

• Puffpaw App, the most hyped consumer app on Berachain, launches on May 5

• Hyperbeat announces vaults with Morpho, HyperUnit, and Ethena

Even more important bits.

• The European Data Protection new guidelines could kill public blockchains

• South Korea’s ruling party vows to approve spot crypto ETFs

• Mastercard is bringing stablecoins like USDC into global payments

• Arizona House passes bill to establish a Bitcoin Reserve

• Tether bought more than 7.7 tons of gold with plans to tokenize

Charts and stats of the day.

• Hyperliquid crossed 600,000 accounts

• HyperUnit reached $100m in BTC deposits

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BTCUSDT 1D Binance w/ Month Markers

Today’s chart is all about month-end PA. We almost always see a selloff (hammers), followed by a local low that is a good spot to enter (red circles). This happens generally from month-end to a low being set, usually in the first week of the month.

This is just a gentle reminder that BTC has run up from $74k to $95k, into high-timeframe resistance ($96.5k) with no meaningful pullback. The backtest data (above) suggests we may get one soon, and stables will be good to have at the ready. Here’s one possibility, and here is another (scroll down to the ‘daily’ view).

On the macro front, I would not be surprised to see the US market start pricing in the coming China supply shock. There have not been meaningful day-to-day consequences for this trade war yet, but they are coming.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Interesting movements on mindshare: DeFi push is notable here. Time to put memecoins on the shelf for a bit?

As for DeFi, I would be looking at core Ethereum projects such as Aave, Curve, or Pendle, and for new DeFi-focused EVMs like Berachain or HyperEVM (check our guide here).

Solana smart-money movements, a story as old as time. Hot air dominates.

Ethereum smart-money movements indicate some interest in Prime, a long-term GameFi project. Maybe a little hit of a gaming narrative comeback brewing? Chart-wise, it’s got a way to go, though. Would wait the consolidation out.

• Harmonix Finance (Hyperliquid) - Automated Season 3 airdrop farming

• Burve (Berachain DeFi)

• Bera Horses (Berachain)

• Tierra (Berachain DeFi)

• Overlay protocol (Berachain)

• Social Poker (Crypto poker)

• fBomb (DeFi)

To save you doom scrolling.

Some interesting debates happening on CT lately…

Continuing our “and finally” PURR speculations from yesterday, it seems this one is truly getting ready.

With Hyperliquid basically confirming the new point season yesterday, I think holding spot PURR and waiting for more protocols to list it as collateral is a good move for price action and farming season 3 HYPE airdrop.

Not financial advice! But I’m in.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡