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🧐 Historically Bearish Sentiment: Will BTC Reverse This Wednesday?

🧐 Historically Bearish Sentiment: Will BTC Reverse This Wednesday?

PLUS let's break down upcoming Berachain Boyco unlock!

May 05, 2025

GM, tricky week ahead.

Last Friday we hoped to see BTC charge higher fast, but by today, it’s pretty apparent another season of schizo price action is what we get.

The hopes for immediate bullish momentum died with the failure of $95.5k, so now, let’s hope we hold the yearly open around $91k. Otherwise, a deeper chop period between $85k and $95k returns. Even though painful, holding these levels would still be bullish long-term for this year.

A lot can happen this week, though. With the FOMC coming up on Wednesday, preparation for volatility is warranted. Even though there is very little probability of a rate cut, Powell will likely provide some dovish remarks, planning cuts for the remainder of the year. This alone should support the market.

There’s definitely some trap moves coming up, though. Crude oil is absolutely plummeting, and it seems we’re entering an era of deflation fears, rather than inflation.

Nevertheless, the investor sentiment remains historically bearish, including institutional interest. Will the majority be right, while the US federal net-debt outlooks looks like this?

Another catalyst for this week could be ETH’s Pectra upgrade, coming online in 2 days. You can read a full breakdown here. If a thing such as ETH/BTC bottom even exists, it has to be somewhere around here (pls).

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The important bits.

Somnia publishes a weekly recap, check here
Hyperliquid activates fee tiers
GMX announces expansion to Berachain, Base and Binance
Superseed’s token SUPER will come to market today
Curve Finance’s Twitter page was hacked

Even more important bits.

Tether is building a decentralized AI network powered by USDT
Google Wallet just rolled out zero-knowledge proof tech
UK plans to ban consumers from borrowing money, including credit cards to buy crypto
Movement Labs has suspended co-founder Rushi Manche amid a scandal
Solana validators have patched a zero-day vulnerability
Elon Musk puts on a Mog Pit Viper glasses
President Trump says, "I want crypto. Crypto is important because if we don't do it, China will."
Tether CEO defends skipping MiCA, calling EU stablecoin rules “very dangerous.”

Charts and stats of the day.

Active addresses on Sonic are rapidly growing
Japanese equities just experienced their largest inflow since 2024
Active addresses on HyperEVM continue to soar
Bitcoin dominance nears 65%

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Berachain’s do-or-die moment.

Tommorow will mark a crucial moment in Berachain’s journey, which was pretty damn painful lately.

The massive Boyco unlock is coming, and the question remains: how much of the $2.5b locked liquidity will stay onchain?

Theoretically, it would take only 1.8% of Boyco's liquidity to buy BERA to completely offset the 2% supply unlock that is coming along with it.

I certainly wouldn’t play hero and wait to see the price action once things actually happen. For what it’s worth, the Berachain builder community is currently more active than ever, trying to patch up inefficiencies such as value accrual to BERA.

Let’s see. I remain positive about Berachain in the long term.

For those of you who participated in Boyco vaults, check your allocations here.