🔴 Is It Over Or Not? The Plan Is Clear.

GM, I hope this finds you well.

Worst-case scenario, unlocked. BTC smashed through $90K, and now both Bitcoin and equities are in free-fall. For now? All bets are off until Bitcoin either reclaims the previous range or establishes a new (lower) one. We’ll track this as it develops.

Meanwhile, we’re also seeing continued weakness in indexes after NYC opened, and the VIX (volatility index) is shooting up. Don’t rush anywhere; let the dust settle. There’s always a chance for a solid bounce after days like these, and tomorrow, it might coincide with Trump’s first Digital Asset Subcommittee hearing.

Yesterday, Trump dealt the final blow to the market, announcing that Canada and Mexico would be subject to tariffs starting on March 4th. This month seems to be ending on a highly bloody note, which will likely make February 2025 the worst February for crypto since 2014. 

Let’s look at a few silver linings because each coin has two sides. For one, the Fear&Greed index finally reached extreme fear, and we all know this was needed after the froth we experienced since Trump’s election win. One might say it's even deserved after the grifts that happened on Solana.

Also, no market top indicators have been fulfilled yet. Now, this doesn’t mean we cannot have a more prolonged bear period ahead, especially if, again, BTC doesn’t reclaim above the $90k area as quickly as possible. If the monthly closes below, prepare for more pain.

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BTC is very oversold here, but ongoing tradfi nuking at the open today is taking us lower , regardless. I think we get a little bounce here but ultimately likely test the Kijun (red line) in the next week or so. It’s the slower MA in the ichimoku trend following system and currently sits at $81k.

At that point, we need to stay out of that green cloud for a show of strength. The macro situation and hawkish fed are exerting negative pressure on growth, but I expect this is a short-term situation arising from the Trump admin’s economic policy changes, shifting growth from a fiscally derived phenomenon to a more market-based.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Smart-money movements on Solana.

Smart-money movements on Ethereum.

To save you doom scrolling.

Soon.

Bounces always come. If you’re stuck in positions, remember—even if the longer-term outlook turns bearish, selling at the bottom of one of the biggest sell-offs we’ve seen might not be the move.

Of course, this is not a financial advice. The only true thing is that nobody really knows where things end up from here—wishing you all good luck! We will need it.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡