🩸 Quad-Witching Friday Nears

🗞 Market commentary.

GM, brave dip buyers. 

The market bloodbath appears directly tied to the escalating chaos on crypto Twitter. If there’s one takeaway, it’s that when accounts are out for blood and reputations are under fire, the market is likely nearing a bottom.

Bitcoin is following our charted course, with a shot at bottoming out here or around the $60,000 mark. The most important event and date to note here is the upcoming quad witching date (simultaneous expiration four times a year of stock options, index futures, and index futures options derivatives contracts) coming up this Friday. 

Even though we can definitely expect volatility to the downside, historically, these events tend to mark a bottom.

📊 Luke’s Chart of the Day

OTHERS 1D Log Chart

OTHERS is the market index for coins outside the top 10. This one looks worse than all the TOTAL 1,2,3 indices. No majors like $BTC or $ETH are in here to prop it up. RSI is already very oversold. 

If you look at last year, we bottomed June 9 at 25% below the 200-day MA. RSI was in a similar place. The 200-day MA is typically the pivot people use to determine if a trend is bull or bear. By comparison, the $BTC 200-day MA is at $57k. Maybe it gets tested if we go for my purple box above. 

In short, I don’t think this is a good place to capitulate on your spot altcoin bags. Of course, results will vary according to what you own, but personally, I am betting that we are close to the bottom on this index.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

🔥 Degen corner.

Convex is Back 

Following the colossal CRV liquidation, which likely marked a DeFi market bottom, CVX—the token of Convex Finance, Curve’s yield booster—experienced an epic rebound. 

Convex is not only a long-time battle-tested protocol, it might be one of the most attractive tokens in a time when almost everyone is fed up with low float, high fully diluted valuation tokens. CVX tokens are nearly fully circulated, with the protocol raking in around $80 million annually. 

As the market inevitably circles back to utility coins and DeFi in the bull run’s second half, we need to seek out coins that are:

1. Secure

2. Battle-tested

3. Highly profitable business model

4. Share revenue with holders

5. Immutable

Got any other points, folks? Personally, I want to own secure protocols with PMFs that have proven their worth. 

This brings us to tomorrow's topic: Dinero. Dinero is around the corner, and it’s worth exploring. Stay tuned.

👀 DeFi insights.

The important bits.

• Unstoppable (DeFi) - Early access ending, audited contracts going live - read

• Avantis (DeFi) - Earn up to 40% + Avantis XP + Superform XP - read

• Base (L2) - Partners with Adidas - read

• Curve (DeFi) - Token inflation will drop dramatically after August 2024 - read

• Ethena (DeFi) - Tokenomics & staking update - read

• Rocket Pool (LST) - Houston upgrade is live - read

📰 DeFi news.

Even more important bits.

• SEC’s head of crypto assets quits after 9 Years - read

• Rapper ‘Waka Flocka Flame’ boards celeb crypto train - read

• Solana MEV bot pockets $30 million in 2 months - read

🫠 ICYMI.

Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.

Bitcoin Evolution: Glyph Exchainge, BRC20, and L2s

Podcast

A blocmates Orange - Episode 2 with Glyph Exchange is live now!

Jedi chats with the team about Glyph's efforts to build a Bitcoin-powered DEX on the Core DAO network, emphasizing mature DeFi models and new Bitcoin assets like BRC20.

Tune in on Spotify | YouTube →

🐥 Tweet of the day.

To save you doom scrolling.

Sorry Britney, this really do be facts tho…

🦍 And finally…

I firmly believe the second half of the bull run, especially after Ethereum ETF, is going to return us to our roots and re-focus on utility coins, DeFi included. This might be the main rotation of this run; DeFi is still sitting at bear market lows, while memes made hundreds of multiples. The liquidity will find its way.

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