🔴 Tariff Impacts Continue: How Will This Affect BTC?

GM, welcome back to the danger zone.

BTC is still struggling below $95.5k, so it’s smart to stay cautious until that level flips. Near‑term, it needs to hold $91-92k short-term. This thesis by ColdBloodShill makes a lot of sense.

What’s especially tricky here is that the S&P 500 just had 9 days straight of green closes, which is historically high. With tomorrow’s FOMC, seeing a pullback somewhere from where it’s currently would make sense. Also, plenty of gaps were created along the way.

Nevertheless, even if we go into the next bearish phase after the $76k low, the structure is shifting bullish on higher-term timeframes for crypto.

We must consider the upcoming lagging effects of the U.S./China tariff situation. Myia's worrisome explanation makes a lot of sense here.

If Bitcoin keeps tracking gold during any macro mess ahead, its underlying strength should hold and eventually drive the price higher.

As for U.S. stocks, the situation looks bleak if Trump can’t negotiate a deal with China as soon as possible. Just look at Jeff Bezos, who plans to sell 5 billion dollars of Amazon stock over the next 13 months.

Yep, we’re in the danger zone, but I still believe we'll pull through and recover into Q3-Q4 this year. Let’s see.

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Even more important bits.

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Charts and stats of the day.

• Ethereum's stablecoin market cap is up ~1,000,000x since the first time ETH price hit $1400

• Bernstein expects $330 billion corporate treasury led inflows to BTC by 2029

• Curve Finance reached $1.82 trillion in stablecoin volume last month

• BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF bought 5,640 BTC worth $531.2M on May 5

• US technology stocks are at the lowest performance in ~18 months

• Cumulative inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs have hit a fresh ATH of $40.62B

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BTCUSD 4H Coinbase

I think Bitcoin will put in a local low this week, which will likely be a good entry. That could be anywhere from $92k down to $84k, but oversold levels this week are probably for buying. There’s a futures gap at $92k, the 200-day MA (blue line above) at $90,500 odd, and volume node support at ~87k and 84k. Watch for a reaction at these levels if we get a selloff.

BTC has struggled to reclaim that main resistance at $96,500 area, even with Saylor loading up the truck again. Michael, if you’re a subscriber, please leave some coins for the rest of us and try to imagine how it will look for BTC if half the supply is owned by one not-very-profitable shell company. Probably not a great advert for the asset you have bet the farm on.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

I feel like Curve Finance is simultaneously the most faded and most promising project for growing stablecoin adoption. Chart-wise, it currently stands out as well. It is a long-term bet for me personally, and patience is required.

Just as Curve becomes the number one bet for stablecoins, Mog dominates the memecoin space.

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To save you doom scrolling.

A new thesis for my Retardio bags just dropped.

I just read some really bullish hopium on the outlook of global liquidity and possible prolongation of this cycle way into 2026.

Let’s get into this in tomorrow’s market commentary. Be there.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡