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- ❓ The 4-Year Cycle Question
❓ The 4-Year Cycle Question
PLUS let's talk Pyth Network!
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That’s it. You’re in the mix.
They’ve already released some pretty cool crypto-themed games, and with football (not soccer) season back, their upcoming sportsbook couldn’t be dropping at a better time.
So if you fancy a punt, go have a play. Just remember, as always: gamble responsibly.
GM. The bounce isn't bouncing as much as I expected it to bounce.
Nevertheless, I still believe these are times to debate bottoms, at least medium-term ones, not tops. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying the bottom is happening right this second. Real bottoms take time to form. Even if we bounce from here, markets can easily revisit the lows later.
Of course, I could be wrong, and it’s down only from here. So, let`s see what that would look like. My views are similar to what Mayne describes here. If this dump continues and $98K breaks, Bitcoin will have one last chance to prove the bears wrong somewhere in the low 90s.
Thing is, if BTC really heads that low, I’d still lean bullish — that’s the final stand for this cycle’s bull market. By that point, the Fear & Greed Index will be buried deep in red, and as history shows, that’s usually where reversals are born. Remember how things felt during April - and what happened shortly after.
If the bottom is already in, we should expect BTC to start closing at a minimum above $107K, to regain a basic level of confidence in this market. Until then, there’s no reason to rush or make huge, risky bets on the long sign.
What’s also worth remembering is how quickly the narrative can transform on the macro side. Right now, we’re already seeing that Trump wants to back off from all the tariff drama, announcing there won’t be any more tariff news for the next six months. Honestly, fuck the word “tariff” and thank god I can stop writing it for a while.
Additionally, the treasury buybacks started in the US. As we discussed early in the week, the Fed is aware of how tight liquidity conditions have become this year. Even if there’s no 2021-style “QE infinity” coming, the conditions will ease. Although this may not send us straight to Valhalla, it will undoubtedly support the markets.
As for TradFi, it appears that the NASDAQ and SPX are forming local tops. This supports the prolonged bearish/choppy conditions thesis and the fact, as mentioned earlier, that the bottom might take a while to form. I recommend tracking these levels if you need help on the indices side.
To wrap this one up, I’d like to underscore how pivotal these times truly are. In around two to three months, we’re about to see if the 4-year cycle theory still holds true for crypto. If not, can 2026 actually be another bullish year, supported by ongoing global liquidity growth and easing monetary conditions in the US?
I’d love to have an answer for you, but we’ll simply have to wait and see. Stay tuned.
Got questions, opinions, or feel like having a chat about the market? Hop in Hix0n’s Hideout free Discord channel and join the crew!
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The important bits.
blocmates discusses the $17m fomo raise in a new podcast, listen here
Kyan Trading Competition will be starting very soon, check rewards here
Mira Network announces Pokémon packs rewards, learn more here
Fuel Network announces partnership with Dune, read here
Jumper reached $2.6B volume in October, read here
Research article on Kyan by blocmates is now published, read here
Extended now supports Hyperliquid builder codes, read here
Kinetiq announces Chainlink integration, read here
Lido introduces sTrategy DeFi rewards, learn here
Dev.Fun announces IPOs are live again, read here
Virtuals Protocol announces Agentic Fund of Funds by Butler, read here
PumpFun announces leaderboard stats & PNL calendars, read here
MegaETH ICO allocations are now published, check yours here
Even more important bits.
Charts and stats of the day.
The mNAV on SharpLink is .85, and they're selling ETH, read here
USDC yield on Beep reached 40% APY, read here
The XYZ100 market has done over $1.3B in volume since launching, read here
The stablecoin supply on Ethereum hits $184.1B, read here
Prediction markets volume is reaching new highs, chart here
Don’t miss out on the daily blocmates news bulletin with Gaz! Tune in here.
Here’s another reason why I think this whole hawkish ordeal might take longer than people expect. Take it slow for the remainder of the year.
Telemetry data of the day.
PumpFun + Heaven + Bonk trending tokens for the last 24h:
If you want to access more of this type of data and trade freshly graduated tokens on PumpFun of Bonk, visit Telemetry here (it`s free).
Oracle meta continues. Welcome to Pyth Network.
You might have noticed there’s quite a lot of hype surrounding Oracle projects lately. Sergey is back in his 2019 shilling mode, SEDA won the hearts (and wallets) of the Hyperliquid community… It’s nice to see excitement around actual fundamentals coming.
That said, there may not be a better time to discuss Pyth Network than now. The fundamentals have been up only lately, while the PYTH token is consolidating, and possibly double bottoming, on a very long timeframe.
Pyth Network isn’t a small-scale project; it’s, in fact, one of the most crucial infrastructure parts of the current crypto landscape.
Here are some of the latest developments as a quick reminder that Pyth Network’s size is an actual size:
Pyth Network powers DAT’s feeds across 100+ blockchains (MSTR, BMNR, and more), read here
Pyth powers BTCfi with institutional-grade data on Sui and beyond, read here
Pyth Network will be live on Monad mainnet, read here
Kalshi, the main Polymarket rival, integrated Pyth, read here
And lastly, Pyth Network will power America’s economic data
Yes, you’re reading that right. The US GDP is coming onchain thanks to Pyth:
Allora (AI) - Airdrop eligibility checker tomorrow
Base Meme (Launchpad) - Announces Genesis Pass, get it here
Fraction Skin (CS:GO market) - FRCT token is now live
Tokenworks (DeFi) - NAKASTR launching today
Hush (Solana privacy wallet)
Silhouette ( The Shield Exchange on Hyperliquid)
To save you doom scrolling.
Our great friend hoeem nailed this one:
There we go, another week is behind us. Yes, it’s been a shitty one. Let’s keep our hopes up, though.
Those who survive always reap the rewards in the end. Markets simply end up higher anyway. Remember, we live in a world with an infinitely growing money supply. The only way to survive is to hold assets.
Oh, and for the promised hopium. Here you go, enjoy dreaming; I'm sure I am.
stay safe homies,
Hix0n 🫡
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