☝️ TRUMP Top Signal? More Like BTC to $120k Next.

PLUS the DeFi picks that might benefit from Ethereum's comeback arc!

January 20, 2025

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Your head is probably already spinning from all the Trump’s memecoin-related euphoria postings on X, alongside the bearish takes calling this a clear top signal for the market.

We already covered all this in today’s Good Morning Degen, so rather than overanalyzing the implications of the U.S. president launching shitcoins left and right, let’s find an anchor in the one thing that never lies: price.

BTC is attacking ATHs as we speak, plain and simple. While half of the timeline calls for a bull market top, this is all we need to know. I hate to break it to you, bears, but unless Bitcoin starts closing weeklies back under $100k, this bull market isn’t going anywhere. In fact, the odds are leaning toward BTC hitting $120K next.

Meanwhile, Google Trends for crypto are surging, plus in a single day, around 400,000 new people used Moonshot and were onboarded to Solana.

Speaking of SOL, it’s clearly the retail-slash-shitcoin casino winner of this cycle. Even though there were some hiccups with the chain being under massive pressure over the weekend, adoption is booming, and SOL, as well as SOL/ETH charts, with it. Continuation likely.

Now to the underdog, Ethereum. Even though it’s tough to believe now, I think ETH will come out in the green by the end of next month. We’re seeing the Ethereum space finally rallying together:

Vitalik puts on a Milady pfp; the Ethereum Foundation lead is to be replaced with an actual real-life mogger, Danny Ryan, who previously led the Merge transition to Proof of Stake, and the seasonality tells us that ETH thrives especially during Q1.

To summarize: if the bull market continues—and it’s looking like it will—everything will pump, and you’ll enjoy the ride no matter which camp you’re rooting for.

Also, you might see some nasty wicks during today’s inauguration, so I would advise you to keep hands off leverage and not make any rash decisions.

Lastly, check out Degen Corner below for more about the implications of Trump buying large chunks of ETH.

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This breakout level of retail interest for Solana is eye-opening. The price is pumped to new all-time highs, but perps' funding was hugely negative yesterday and is barely positive today. So, there’s not much leverage and likely a lot of short interest. Either as a hedge against the Q1 supply unlocks (which will mostly be done by February 2nd), or traders expressing a very bearish view into the inauguration today.

With spot buying pressure, we could see a nice squeeze send us back into price discovery. Maybe not immediately, but likely in the next 2 weeks or sooner.

Some other things to note here:

The incentive is to support the chain. You have to think a Solana ETF is very likely coming now. 

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Most CT mentions of “trenches” in history.

Smart-money movements of the day.

Staking narrative and Ethereum DeFi

It’s interesting to watch how the Trump camp uses these two blockchains: Solana for retail mania and memecoins, and Ethereum for investing and launching DeFi.

As the Arkham dashboard shows, Trump’s Worldlibertfi bought over $50m worth of ETH and various DeFi tokens, including LINK, ENA, and AAVE. 

Adding to the intrigue, Eric Trump has been teasing some major news supposedly tied to these acquisitions.

It might be worthwhile watching the Ethereum-based DeFi charts and staking projects like Lido or the rapidly growing Dinero. 

Not only is the Ethereum Foundation considering putting its treasury into staking to lessen its notoriously known selling pressure, but little birdies are telling us that we’re likely to see multiple announcements from the TradFi and regulatory side, like perhaps staking Ethereum ETFs. 

It’s definitely a good idea to keep an eye on the Ethereum space.

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AI Corner

Holoworld went live with their launchpool yesterday. You can stake $AVA to get rewards from three other agents: $DWAIN, $DIGIMON, and $SPORE. Early stakers receive ‘maximum benefits’. It’s unclear what that refers to, whether it’s more staking rewards or a future airdrop, or both.

The Holoworld agent launchpad went live on the 14th. The project is interesting in that they have a user-friendly no-code agent creation process and are focused on web 2/retail onboarding.

Daydreams also looks interesting. The $DREAMS token launched yesterday and is currently consolidating around $18m market cap. It’s a chain-agnostic generative agent gaming framework. Basically, a toolkit for building AI agent game characters (NPC’s) is my understanding.

New content to study.

New projects and updates.

The important bits.

  • Nillion (Blind computer) - Announce NILL airdrop

  • SwapX (DEX) - Reached $100m in volume

  • Tannsi (DeFi) - Check out the weekly news recap from Tannsi

  • Zentry (Gaming) - Introduces the Agentic Layer with Alicia

  • Peapods Finance (DeFi) - Features new Leveraged Volatility Farming UI

  • Mode (L2) - Check out the Mode DeFAI Demo day

  • Berachain (L1) - $2b is now locked in Berachain's external vaults

  • Pendle (DeFi) - Features its Berachain ecosystem reach

  • Flare (DeFi) - Announcing upcoming rewards season

Even more important bits.

Charts and stats of the day.

Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.

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It’s going to be a good ride, but it’s going to be a rocky one.

As the bull market progresses, the price moves get increasingly rapid. Every dump, every liquidation hunt, and even coins running into multi-billions—as we saw with TRUMP—will feel like a top signal.

One day, that will be true, but for now, the reason for siding with the bears simply isn’t there. The only thing that’s true and worth remembering is that we’re definitely in the final innings of this cycle, and the longer this final season lasts, the more chips you should take off the table.

Good luck!

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡

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