🐻 Bear Punishment Is Near. How Near?

GM to everyone who’s still bullish grypto coins.

It was a fun weekend watching the massive Hyperliquid whale shorting $300m size of BTC, longing Melania, and psyoping the timeline with his “TetherFud” wallet tag. Nevertheless, it’s Big Week time now. Big boy pants on.

As during every bear season, macro is now at the forefront. Even though SPX looks ripe for a proper bounce here, I expect wicks both ways during the upcoming days. We have FOMC coming up on Wednesday, and there’s also a big quad witching date on Friday (quarterly options expiry).

It's important to note here that the FOMC combined with quad witching dates often provide important pivots on price action. So where to? Bitcoin slowed down the dump fest the past few days, and even though it’s possible we have one quick dump to previous lows, it’s highly likely a proper sustained bounce is coming.

Assuming Trump chills on the schizoposting this week, we’ve also got favorable winds coming from the East. China just announced a plan to stimulate an extra $1T (5% of $20T) into its GDP this year. This is great news for global liquidity, which is already picking up steam as it is.

The only missing piece is easier conditions in the US, which we might not see until May at the earliest. Nevertheless, we know that markets are forward-looking, so it will be interesting to see if we can really bottom out during these weeks.

On top of it all, stablecoin supply is rapidly expanding. Michael Saylor bought the dip instead of the top today. Should we, too? I’m not financially advising anything, but I can definitely see value in long-term buys here.

Lastly, despite the bull hopium, the possibility of going as low as $70k is still here, and there’s no reason to be blindly bullish until we flip $95k. Keep that in mind. Cautiously optimistic.

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The important bits.

• Tanssi completed the community sale, raising $1m; read the summary here

• Maia DAO releases a guide on automated yield strategies

• IVX, perp. exchange on Berachain launches new reward program with SYMM rewards

• mETH Protocol vault yielding 6.8% is almost full; deposit here

• Io.net explains its IO Intelligence product; listen here

• Core DAO offers a 50x rewards multiplier by trading on Akka Finance

• HeyANON, DeFAI by Daniel Sesta, announces new upgrade

• OrangeFinance launches new CLAMM pools on Berachain

• Curve Core smart contracts deployed to Berachain Bepolia testnet

• Berachain teases Pumpfun integration

Even more important bits.

• Standard Chartered Bank cuts $ETH year-end price target from $10,000 to $4,000

• North Korea’s Lazarus group has converted the stolen ETH to BTC

• rip.Eth summarizes Etherealize’s push for institutional Ethereum adoption

• Hayden Davis launched another rugpull while on the run from Interpol

• World Liberty Financial has disputed WSJ and Bloomberg’s reports on a Trump-Binance deal

• 563 releases an explainer on Nous’s decentralized AI

Charts and stats of the day.

• Digital asset investment products saw a 5th consecutive week of outflows

• Base paid over $300k to Ethereum L1 during last month

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BTCUSD Daily Coinbase

Bitcoin wins chart of the day again. We need Daddy BTC to turn around before we can sustainably long almost anything else, unfortunately. I still think we’re due a bounce to the upside round these levels.

The RSI (bottom) is compressing beneath the downtrend. We may get a pop when we break through there. Resistance is at the red line on the fixed range volume profile at $96,350, so if we make it up there, look out for another potential move down.

Price is once again consolidating under the 200-day moving average (blue line), as it did for three months last year and two months or so in 2023. Everybody seems to be expecting that $73k breakout retest now, so I suspect we either front-run to the upside—maybe sweep the previous low at $76k—or go lower—mid to high 60s—to flush early longs. This all likely happens in April, though. My base case is up into month end.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Solana smart-money movements still show who the king is. Hot air rises.

Ethereum smart-money movements. Well, USDC to the moon. No meaningful action around these parts yet.

Bored? Let’s mine some Tari coins.

Good old Proof of Work! Short-term trading is turning people absolutely schizophrenic these days and I don’t want anything to do with it. How about we mine some coins?

Agent Chud (previously Crypto Messiah) just gave Tari a shoutout, and we all know this guy always has good alpha.

There’s still time to mine Tari coins for the airdrop, probably coming around April when the mainnet launches.

Aaaah you gonna make me mine. Use this link and simply start mining with me.

• BoxOffice (Solana, DeFi)

• Mask of Luci (NFT)

• SteadyTeddys (Berachain NFT) - Confirms mint date

To save you doom scrolling.

End of an era. Godspeed Murad.

I can’t help but see increasingly more light at the end of the tunnel. Whether it happens this month, next month, or in September, my gut tells me there are still fireworks to be seen, and they won’t be all colored red.

Once again, those who survive will thrive; that’s the game now.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡