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🐶 BTC Topped Out, But Memecoin Supercycle is Confirmed? Wait a Minute.

🐶 BTC Topped Out, But Memecoin Supercycle is Confirmed? Wait a Minute.

PLUS all the AI news and macro outlooks you need to stay on top!

January 21, 2025

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GM, the top callers are out in full force.

Even though this market could top out at any moment, declaring the top is in with Bitcoin hovering around $105k and Ethereum still below previous all-time highs might be a bit premature—especially if we compare these indicators to prior cycles.

Of course, if BTC starts failing and, once again, closing weekly candles back below $100k, there are legitimate concerns to be speaking about. For now, it seems the biggest concern of literally everyone is the fact that Trump did not sign any crypto-related bills during the first few hours of his presidency.

Instead of focusing on promises, maybe it’s time to look at what the Trump camp is actually doing. What’s currently indisputable is that Trump’s project World Liberty Financial actively stacks both BTC and ETH, for now holding around $147m worth of ETH already.

On top of that, Trump’s project is now staking its ETH with Lido, the project mentioned in yesterday’s Degen Corner.

Does Ethereum still have a chance to blow past all-time highs? The Ethereum community is finally acting like there’s fire under their asses. The debate around the replacement of the Ethereum Foundation leadership heats up with Vitalik continuously Milady posting, saying the change is coming soon.

On the macro front, we see a possible mid-term top for DXY, which could provide further favorable tailwinds for our beloved crypto coins. More on that below by Luke.

So, stay mindful of where we are in the cycle—things can turn sour quickly, but at the same time, don’t get too spooked by cycle top callers exiting the market at every 5-minute red candle.

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BTCUSDT 4H Log Chart

We’re getting the expected volatility as Trump takes office. The weekly low was set in the first half hour of trading. Then we ripped to a new all-time high pre-inauguration, only to insta dump as Orange Man took to the podium.

Technically, when you set the weekly low at the open, it’s very likely you will revisit that level to test it. We’ve done that this morning, tagging $100k, and now we’re testing the old range high as support since the US market open (Nasdaq correlation playing out).

POTUS has already signed 27 executive orders today and yesterday. This inevitably leads to market volatility - for both TradFi and crypto. Gold is already pumping - usually a good benchmark for uncertainty.

All that said, I still think the setup for the coming 3 months is very good - both in terms of ‘crypto president’ benefits and in terms of the business cycle. DXY is already coming down. A weaker dollar will be great for liquidity and risk.

You can read @cointradernik’s latest market report here for a more in-depth view of the above.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Meme mindshare in down significantly.

Meme mindshare down significantly but still strong.
— Vu Benson (@Vu_Benson)
12:17 PM • Jan 21, 2025

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AI Corner

Open AI’s agent tool Operator could be close to release, which will inevitably shine a light on the AI Agent space again. It’s rumored the Mac OS ChatGPT app will be the first place to try it out. It’s currently going through internal testing.

$GMAC / Gemach are working on a Llama Lend integration with Curve Finance using an LLM-style interface. Using the existing CRV interface is an exercise in frustration. If anything merits AGI intervention, using Curve has to be it. GMAC is new to me, but the market cap seems pretty low at $2m FDV.

THALES has been showing huge strength today, and PA/market structure looks promising for new highs. The market cap is still relatively low at $21m. They have a partnership with Nillion for blind compute, and the Nillion TGE is this month, which should help to focus attention on them.

New content to study.

AI sector coverage by TylerD
90% of AI agents are just GPT wrappers with $100M+ by SmarApe
Is Symp.ai the Aixbt of Cross-Chain DeFi Trading by Virtual Morales

New projects & updates.

Ceasar (Search engine for AI)
Colo Fun (Colloseum for AI agents)

The important bits.

INFINIT (DeFi) - Infinit terminal for trading with AI agents is now live
Tannsi (DeFi) - Early Access to Let’s Forkin’ Dance is live!
EOS (L1) - TVL is continuously rising
Ramen Finance (Berachain) - Announce snapshot for NFTs coming up Jan. 23
pStake FInance (BTCfi) - YBTC is now live on Ethereum
Uniswap (DEX) - Presents a mechanism to unify Ethereum
Shogun (DeFi) - Announces “Shogun being ready to be farmed”
Pendle (DeFi) - Join the Pendle DeFi Hours on Jan. 23
Dinero (DeFi) - pxETH now part of ZkIgnite
Plume (DeFi) - Trading on Plume is now live
Infrared (Berachain) - Announces pxETH integration by Dinero

Even more important bits.

Trump to soon sign an executive order easing bank ownership of digital assets
The official D.O.G.E. website is now live, featuring the DOGE logo
Utah just introduced a bill that will give the state the authority to invest in “digital assets.”
President Trump halts hiring of new IRS agents
Trump vows to block US CBDC development
Pro-Bitcoin Mark Uyeda replaces Gary Gensler as Acting Chair of the SEC

Charts and stats of the day.