🧨 Bull Run 2025 Confirmed: Global Liquidity Will Explode

PLUS a trade plane for Sonic!

March 20, 2025

GM, the spice must flow.

Over the past few weeks, we have warned about a possible short—to medium-term downside for risk markets while keeping in mind that the outlook for the second half of the year remains largely positive.

Yesterday’s FOMC only reinforced this view. The Fed is slowing down QT to $5 billion per month, and rate cuts are looking increasingly likely by May or June.

The spice will flow, which, in this case, is going to be the largest global liquidity expansion phase of this bull run. Per Michael Howell, the global liquidity cycle peak will happen by Q4 this year or Q1 2026.

This sets the stage for completing the classic 4-year cycle scenario, with the biggest gains concentrated in the final phase. The long-term outlook remains intact, but the short-term road won’t be smooth. BTC is still under $95k, SPX will soon reach a resistance on the bounce, and more chop will ensue.

Nevertheless, the altcoin market is absolutely destroyed, and in my opinion, it’s time to accumulate around these levels or on wicks lower (those likely happen, still). The most brutal part of price capitulation is done; now it’s time for time capitulation and reaccumulation.

Get comfy; patient bulls win (not financial advice, just my view).

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Charts and stats of the day.

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S/USDT 1D Log Chart - Binance

Sonic network fundamentals caught my eye today (tweet chart). Stables, TVL and perps volume are all very strong, whilst price has diverged to the downside, probably due to marketwide pain. Another thing to bear in mind is that Sonic DeFi is on fire, currently. I suspect there is significant capital farming stablecoins. This could turn into $S buy pressure if marketwide sentiment improves.

Andre Cronje also has an interesting new project that we’re keeping an eye on. A Meal Deal piece will go out on this tomorrow.

Sonic, Berachain, and Hyperliquid + HyperEVM are the three most interesting and active ecosystems that I am following at the moment.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Smart money movements on Solana are showing low on-chain interest overall. The shitcoin will re-ignite only after we’re done with the larger market chop and strength comes back into majors, no need to rush.

Source: ChainEdge

Smart-money movements on Ethereum are favoring ENA, perhaps caused by the recent announcement of Converge, a settlement network for traditional finance and digital dollars.

Source: ChainEdge

To save you doom scrolling.

Tyler Durden made an interesting observation here. Now, pair it with everything global liquidity-related that we mentioned in the commentary, and we’ve got a good cook on our hands.

I think it’s still a great time to take things slow, enjoy the yield either on Berachain (Infrared Finance) and sit in majors like ETH or BTC while compounding, or be playing around on Sonic while farming points, for example on Shadow Exchange.

To me, this is the way to not rush too far down the risk too soon and stay sane while compounding daily yield until there’s a clear signal it’s safe to deploy back into smaller caps the best major beta tokens.

Stay tuned, we’ll go through it all right here, every day of the week.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡

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