😼 Crypto Bounce Time Soon? Here's Why The Worst Might Be Over:

Before we jump in, make sure to check out the Meal Deal:

To navigate crypto bull markets correctly, one needs to have a crew with which to bounce ideas.

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GM to everyone except the bears.

Don’t get me wrong—bears might have a short-term case, but I don’t think this cycle is done just yet. We’re still stuck in the same range, meaning you don’t want to see candle closes under $90k (at best, not even $93-94).

If you’re taking a cautious approach, your bullish cue is simple: wait for BTC to close above $100K.

The good news is that we might soon be due for a more sustainable bounce. The fear index has reached 35, indicating an extremely bearish sentiment. Also, there’s quite a lot of short positioning right now, so hopefully, BTC can blow those up (sorry if that’s you.)

Moreover, there are signs that the Fed might need to stop quantitative tightening soon.

Also, the US government hit the debt ceiling in late January, meaning it can’t take on new debt until a fresh ceiling is negotiated. The solution? Tap into the $830 billion in “emergency funds” reserved for such situations. This could happen as early as next week, so I recommend reading this breakdown here.

Additional signs that the worst might be over are the market's starting to brush off bad news or shocking headlines, such as yesterday’s Trump quote about finding fraud in US Treasuries or new tariffs from China, which is planning to impose 10-15% tariffs on US energy and vehicles.

Finally, the US crypto legislation seems to be evolving quickly. Trump is wasting no time, and there’s even talk that a new crypto regulatory framework—including a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—could be finalized within six months.

All of this aligns with the classic bull run timeline—suggesting that 2025 will be the grand finale of this cycle. Meaning? The best is still ahead. (Not financial advice.)

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At times, Gold & Bitcoin move together, but in the runup to the US election, we saw Gold lead and Bitcoin follow. Today, I think we are likely seeing the same dynamic. Both Bitcoin & Gold price in monetary expansion (money printer go brrr), but gold is moving first as it’s the more risk-off asset of the two. The money printer is usually turned on due to some kind of crisis. BTC is a way more risk-on asset, so it waits for the risk catalyst to subside.

In August, Gold broke higher, pricing in the uncertainty around the US election. As soon as Trump won - uncertainty removed - it put in a local top, and Bitcoin took over, cue the ‘Trump Pump’ on risk assets.

Right now, there’s uncertainty around tariffs and a potential trade war. Still, we also know there will be money printing required for Trump’s sweeping changes, reshoring & investing in US manufacturing. Gold has both money printing and tariff risk to price in. Once that risk is resolved (tariff deals struck), the dollar will likely come down and risk assets (BTC) send again. We are already seeing the signs of ‘tariff fatigue’. 

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Smart-money movements on Ethereum.

Smart-money movements on Solana.

Don’t forget about this one if you are whitelisted or joined this RNG raffle for a sure wait to mint (here’s how to join).

Our senior researcher Ollie is megabullish on MegaETH, as it is the first real-time blockchain we’ll ever get. Personally, I want to own the NFT and invest in MegaETH once it’s out as well.

As for the ecosystem, check out Cap, this one caught my eye:

The next one you might want to be on the watch for is GTE, touted as the final CEX killer, and perhaps finally some competition to Hyperliquid. Let’s see.

Sifting through receipts, crunching numbers — it's a yearly ritual of suffering. Throw crypto into the mix, and it’s full-blown chaos.

Now you’re juggling transactions across wallets, flipping between CEXes and DEXes, and wondering if that airdrop was a win or just a taxable headache. And let’s not even start on staking rewards…

Well, it doesn’t necessarily have to suck.

Crypto Tax Calculator is built for degens like you. With over 1000+ integrations, a custom shitcoin pricing oracle, and the superpower to handle your on-chain terror.

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Strong evidence - volume and market structure - that the $AI16Zchart is turning around here. It’s possible we just continue up, but more likely, we get another little pullback and print an inverse head and shoulders. Blocmates wallet stalker-in-chief @danblocmates has spotted some big buys this morning as whales start to allocate for the next move up.

The tokenomics changes are finally coming together, there’s an agent launchpad in the works, and recently, the GitHub has more momentum than Solana (!). 

I am allocating spot and looking to buy more on dips.

HyperEVM
In other news, Hyperliquid will soon have a dual VM environment. This thread from Monk explains this in detail. There will be one brand new, composable EVM, and the existing perps VM for their high performance, onchain Central Limit Order Book (CLOB). The two will share state - so apps on the EVM can place trades in the perps order book.

This is a bullish setup for AI agents looking to trade on the Hyperliquid L1. Look for good momentum to materialize on the Hyperliquid agent projects we’ve shared recently - HWTR, LIQD, and FLY is 3 worth watching. 

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Ethereum. It really is either dead, or it’s one of the best buys one can make for the rest of the bull run. If you’re shorting ETH right now, you might want to see this chart, which shows the number of ETH shorts that have just reached extreme historical levels.

I still have hope for ETH. Although it needs to fix its problems and move faster now, I think it still has a bright future.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡