😡 Did Powell Just Curse Markets Again?

GM, I’m tired, boss.

The endless chop continues, and at this point, we all just wish for this tariff season to end. There’s at least a glimmer of hope—talks with Japan seem to be progressing, and Trump says he’ll sit down with most of the tariff-hit countries, China included.

On the monetary policy front, Powell was undoubtedly very hawkish during yesterday’s speech, saying that “…tariffs may have a larger and more persistent impact on inflation than previously expected”, but simultaneously discloses that “… the Fed could well be in a situation where it needs to make a difficult decision”. Obviously, you can interpret this statement however you want, depending on whether you stand in the bull or bear camp.

Bitcoin’s reaction to all this is quite lackluster but still promising. If we hold these levels, the next target is still around $88k and above it, as high as $95k. On the other hand, watching the $76k level is still critical, which also aligns with this bull market moving average.

Regarding altcoins, it seems we’re already in pretty deeply oversold levels, as seen in the altcoin index. Don’t forget that price capitulation doesn’t equal time capitulation, so it would be wise to prepare for more chop from here.

In confluence with this, it’s worth watching Bitcoin's dominance, which is still marching higher. For this one, we would like to see a rejection around 69%, which is not that far away.

Lastly, BTC is nearing a make it or break it moment for the M2 money supply correlation bulls. Guess we’ll see if this relationship holds true soon enough.

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I think this BTC pullback is one to buy. The macro setup is very good for Satoshi’s liquidity proxy. BTC has been incrementally more resilient on each SPX dump. I think global printing ramps from here, particularly ex-US market.

The rest of the world will likely look to print currency to break their dependence on US markets, defence guarantees, and everything else that was a matter of trust prior to Trump taking office. The outlook for US stocks is much less rosy, as capital continues to be repatriated. That said, the short dollar trade could also be close to over in the short to medium term.

I've charted some strong-looking memes and a couple of RWA plays in my channel on the Blocmates Discord. Solana looks stronger than other majors and I am still hopeful for a bit of a meme pump this weekend.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Smart-money movements on Solana.

Smart-money movements on Ethereum.

To save you doom scrolling.

At this point, the more hands-off the approach, the better, whether it’s simply accumulating spot tokens slowly, waiting in stables, or using the variety of yields available.

Choppy waters such as these can hurt even the best leverage traders, and I’m certainly not cut up for that. As always, the number one focus should be long-term survival.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡