🌕 Full Super Moon Comes Tomorrow: What Means?

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GM apes. 

Hopefully, none of you got wiped out yesterday when BTC vaporized many shorters from existence with a swift hourly $2,000 pump, only to dunk on all late longers and dump back below $65,000. 

Looking ahead, especially through the rest of October, it’s safe to say the bulls are probably in control. 

Plus, tomorrow brings a special event for all the astrology bros and gals: a literal Supermoon. Will it reflect in the BTC chart and send us straight to Valhalla? Honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked.

Maybe today`s pump in Trump`s odds for winning the elections are what`s pushing us higher. 

At the same time, the BTC ETF inflows continue to show up in strength: BlackRock is buying bigly, racking up a solid +$291.1m on the day, and even the long-feared GrayScale is finally showing green, totaling two consecutive days of inflows worth $45.8M.

Now, to not only tout the bullish horn: even though a continuation to $70-80,000 BTC, after that, there is a high possibility for the next high time frame correction, perhaps caused by post-election volatility.

Which brings us to the chart of the day section from Luke:

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MOVE Index (Bond Volatility)

The MOVE Index has blown out again to new yearly highs. The Vix has been above 20 too, but looks to be rolling over today. The elevated MOVE Index is not great for global liquidity, specifically because it’s harder to lever up bond collateral when bond volatility is high. 

Basically what we are seeing is election uncertainty and volatility being priced in. Both the Vix and the MOVE price in implied volatility over a rolling 30 day period into the future. The US election is now inside that window and sending them higher.

On the plus side, Bitcoin still looks likely to break out to me - if not today then tomorrow - and the usual high correlation with the Nasdaq is diverging to the upside today.

Just watch out for some likely tradfi volatility spicing things up over the next 3 weeks.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Smart-money movements of the day:

Hyperliquid controls 31% of all perps mindshare:

4 DeFi Bottom Bet Picks for Patient Ones

DeFi might be the most boring sector price-wise at the moment, but rest assured, multiple next-gen projects are being developed as we speak. 

Now, none of this is financial advice, but personally, spreading some meme profits into vastly undervalued, fundamentally strong projects might be a smart move to catch the next wave of repricing.

• Dinero 

Dinero currently has a mere $20m market cap. For a project in development since 2021 and massive network effect in DeFi. 

Whether it`s the highest yielding ETH LST (apxETH), or their institutional ipxETH offering, which will inevitably start getting traction soon (hearing things), I cannot help but think this project is massively undervalued.

Learn more about Dinero in our latest podcast with Sami here.

• Tapioca

Tapioca is building the next-generation money market powered by Layer Zero. This one is often seen as a main DeFi pick in the portfolios of many DeFi veterans.

With a market cap of $11m and a bottomed-out chart, I am adding this one to the “stay patient and bid the bottom” bucket.

Learn more about Tapioca in our explainer video here.

• Gamma Swap 

Gamma Swap is yet another example of how far this market has come from actually valuing real fundamentals. Perpetual option markets are one of the main venues in traditional markets, with some of the highest volumes. 

Gamma Swap is a main contender to bring options onchain, and a mere $1m market cap seems like an absolute joke to me here.

Learn more about Gamma Swap in our explainer here.

• Peapods Finance

You might remember Peapods Finance from our recent newsletter feature. This one, to me, is a great contender for a Pendle-like run, bringing new DeFi primitives to the market and seeing actual adoption from participants. 

To me, it`s hard to see PEAS staying around this $45m valuation much longer.

Learn everything about Peapods Finance in our latest article here.

To close this section, once again, none of this is financial advice; make your own decisions. Be warned: all of these might require real patience and a thesis in mind to make it through the chop and see the desired outcomes.

The important bits.

• Superseed (First L1 that repays your debt) - Officially joining the Optimism Superchain

• Sophon (Entertainment layer) - Announces partnership with Mirai Labs

• Peapods Finance (DeFi) - Now the fastest growing protocol in TVL on Base

• BlonkFi (MemeFi) - Announces the When Testnet Meme Contest

• SKALE (L2) - StreamNFT announced to be launching on SKALE

• Solv Protocol (Decentralized BTC reserve) - Enables Shared Economic Security for Avalanche for BTC holders

• Celestia (DA) - Activated the Shwap Upgrade, making DA sampling 12x faster

• Bonk (Memecoin) - The Osprey Bonk Memecoin ETP has been approved

Even more important bits.

• GOATing crazy: AI meets absurdity in the crypto circus

• Bostic from Fed: DOT projection from FED reflects 25bps increase next

• Adin Ross reveals KICK streaming platform plans to launch a currency

• Donald Trump announces the World LibertyFi token sale

• Tesla transfers $225m worth of Bitcoin to unknown wallets

• Italy to raise capital gain tax on #Bitcoin from 26% to 42%.

Price and stats of the day.

• Hyperliquid is the leading perp. volumes, almost triple the volumes of the next 3 chains

• Off the Grid game continues to push transactions on Avalanche, reaching 4.5m a day

• Raising new crypto VC funds becomes harder and harder

• Memecoin market cap just hit its first higher high since June

Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.

How Persistence One is Keeping Bitcoin Users Safe On-chain

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Jedi hosts Jeroen, the CEO of Persistence One, as they discuss the intricacies of building a trust marketplace to share economic security and an interoperable station for cross-chain swaps across BTC L2s

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To save you doom scrolling.

Memecoin are simply GOATed this cycle, AI approved.

We’re cooking something, and it’s something some of you cult members might really enjoy.

Memecoin battle royale with stacks of meme coins as rewards included? Stay tuned for next newsletter episode.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡