🚀 Israel's War Doesn't Matter For BTC. Let's Break It Down:

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GM, welcome a Big Boring Week.

Unless Bitcoin gets nuked (hopefully not accompanied by actual nukes), it will probably chop a lot of people to bits. We’re back in a similar situation to the past few weeks. As long as BTC is under around $108k and above $100-102k, there’s basically nothing interesting going on, while closes above or below these areas will indicate upcoming larger moves.

If you look for earlier signs of bullishness, watch for daily closes above $106.5k. One reason to lean bullish: the market seems completely unfazed by the war drama. We’re trading higher than when the conflict broke out—if anything, that’s a strong signal.

On the altcoin side, there’s a pretty notable comeback of strength for SOL. While ETH was taking the limelight lately, SOL struggled on the ETH and BTC pairs. Now that we see SOL ETF applications popping up left and right, the tide seems to be turning green again.

I won’t tell you my trench picks here, will I? Alright, it’s MLG, NUB, and MASK. Please don’t listen to this; it's not financial advice.

Back to the serious stuff: this week earns its Big label thanks to the upcoming FOMC meeting (plus a stack of other macro events). But, to be fair, there’s currently a 0% chance that the Fed will cut rates. Whether this is a good or bad thing, I can’t tell. But what I can definitely do is expect a typical Darth Vader candle action, taking out the highs and lows while ending up at the same price as before the FOMC.

So yeah, all eyes on Wednesday. Until then, the biggest risk is getting shredded by chop before anything meaningful breaks out. Have fun.

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The important bits.

• OpenServ hosts a $10k reward Hackathon, join here

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Even more important bits.

• Tron is going public in the US via a reverse merger with Nasdaq

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• Bybit to launch Byreal DEX on Solana this month, featuring a hybrid RFQ and CLMM system

• Hong Kong's MemeStrategy becomes the first HK company to invest in the Solana ecosystem

• Cardano is planning to buy Bitcoin with its $1.2B treasury

• Crypto user lost $6.9M after buying a tampered cold wallet from China’s TikTok app

Charts and stats of the day.

• Michael Saylor's 'Strategy' buys 10,100 Bitcoin worth $1.08 billion

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• Hypurr NFT sells for $65k OTC, new all-time high

• DEX volume is up 460%, active loans 357%, and stablecoin supply 83% over two years

• Ethereum staking queues are rapidly rising

• Bitcoin ETFs last week reached +$ 1.37 billion in inflows

• Gold hits its highest daily and weekly close in history

• Hyperliquid made $4.6 million in revenue in one day

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BTCUSD 12H Coinbase Log Chart

Update on Friday’s BTC chart: dips into the cloud got bought up. De-escalation noises have been coming from the US and Iran since Saturday. I think we go higher soon. We’ve already closed the 12H candle back above the $106k level, which was our previous highest daily close. Close today’s daily candle above there - seems likely at this point - and I think new highs are likely soon.

This war FUD has helped in the sense that we saw a big chunk of liquidations on the Friday dump, and perps funding has stayed low, which is bullish for a move to new highs.

This view from Evan on the Middle East chess board has helped me to macro-larp my way through this latest geopolitical shitshow with some degree of success. Not sure if he’s right, but it aligns with my bags, and the emerging de-escalation arc fits, so I’m going with it.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

OG Memecoiner’s DeFi

An interesting project popped up recently. IMF Credit aims to become the Aave of memecoins, for now powering banking infrastructure for PEPE, MOG and JOE.

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The IMF token is already pretty pumped, but considering it’s still only at $6m market cap while already at $10m total value locked, there’s clear growth and product market fit here.

Whether you want to speculate on the token price or use IMF for your memecoin holdings, this one is certainly one to keep an eye on.

Explainer video below:

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To save you doom scrolling.

Cryptocurrency for world peace. Let’s keep it wholesome.

We’re trading the most overreactive, emotional, and hyper-reflexive market globally. This downside percentage comparison of the Elon/Trump beef with Iran/Israel war dump speaks volumes.

These drops are minor compared to what we saw during the peak of the tariff drama in early April or the Japanese carry trade scare last August.

If you want a bit of homework: zoom out and study how charts behaved during the most fear-driven moments of the past. More importantly, look at where those same charts traded a few months later. Buying fear remains the most effective strategy in the book.

As traders, we have to drill this into our heads and learn to counter-trade our own fear.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡