🔮 Looking Forward: What Will Q2 & Q3 Bring For Bitcoin?

PLUS is Felix the best protocol of HyperEVM?

April 16, 2025

GM, we got Trumped again.

The Orange Man seems to think tariffs are some kind of router device, as he keeps turning them on and off. Today, he’s at it again, cranking up tariffs on China and almost doubling the rate to 254%.

Naturally, markets aren’t loving it, but even though we now have another rough tariff news combined with Nvidia being banned from selling chips to China, the S&P 500 holds pretty well (for now).

The thing is, I can easily see BTC swiping $80k from here again, but I still feel the next few weeks will be a continuation of the bounce. Time is ticking for BTC to catch up with the latest global liquidity rise, and so far, it always has. 

In confluence with the above, during bull runs, gold usually rises first, and is then followed by Bitcoin. Given the latest and frankly historical gold bull move, we now wait for Bitcoin to catch up as well.

Considering the fact that investors are currently the most bearish in 30 years (!), I’m staying an optimist. Even if the next leg up isn’t a whole new bull run, a solid upside from here is certainly possible.

The longer-term question is whether BTC stays above $70k over the summer and into Q4. For example, Michael Howell of Cross Border Capital is now raising questions about whether the liquidity rise can sustain past Q3. We’ll keep you updated on this.

Lastly, Powell will speak about 30 minutes from now, addressing the inflation data and the Fed’s outlook. Watch his tone; it will tell us much about what to expect from the upcoming May and June FOMC.

For now, the probability of rate cuts is slightly above 50%. On the other hand, Polymarket proved itself to be a much more precise prediction tool than official sources, currently showing an 83% chance of no policy changes in May.

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House/SOL 4H PumpSwap

We doing memes again? They never went away. The whole Melania x Libra one-two punch made the trenches haram for a little while, but it’s looking like we are so back.

SPX6900 wanted to outrun the stock market. Housecoin has its sights set on the housing market. At 3 weeks old and with a $12m market cap, there are several trillion dollars to go yet. I started a DCA today, running into Friday, with the basic thesis being more money flows back into memes here. We likely start to get weekend pumps again.

Solana has been strong, Retardio is looking bottomy, and we know what usually comes next. Grant has a House bag, as we learned during yesterday’s Roundtrippers episode. I’m not going to fade his meme pick, just as the space starts to see flows again. We’re at range lows here with MACD bottoming out and turning around, as it did before the big run that started on the 7th of April.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Smart money on Solana seems increasingly positioning back into the notorious memes. If we see SOL defending $120 and continuing to around $180-200 during the next weeks, I can see these having a nice overall bounce.

Source: ChainEdge

Smart money on Ethereum is still failing to show significant volume. Nevertheless, if the market bounce continues, MOG, PEPE, and SPX are the clear candidates for the strongest upside.

Source: ChainEdge

Felix

If you read out HyperEVM airdrop farming guide, you already know about this one.

The thing is, Felix is now fully launched and is already becoming pretty much the number one protocol in this ecosystem while HyperEVM TVL skyrockets.

It's definitely recommended that you play around with this one and read the breakdown below. Points for this one, combined with the HyperEVM activity, sound very inviting.

To save you doom scrolling.

Speaking on Nvidia above, the Inverse Cramer indicator might actually save it. If we see a solid bounce there, it will reflect in the S&P 500, as its share of the index is around 6%, which is massive.

If that happens, it will certainly add a solid kick to continue this market bounce. Let’s see!

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡

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