🧐 Overblown War Fears + Bullish Rumours, Let's Prepare:

Today’s newsletter is brought to you by Vertex, a lightning-fast order book DEX with powerful trading features and cross-margin for maximal efficiency.

Plus, I wouldn’t let the Katana campaign slip by if you’re into some good old airdrop hunting.

Katana is a new L2 by Vertex; pre-deposits to Katana will be rewarded upon mainnet release, so feel free to join the campaign here. 

• Join Vertex here and test your skills in 60+ perp & spot markets. (Don’t end up like James Wynn, though)

GM, everyone having fun?

Luckily, we’ve been flagging incoming volatility all week—and sure enough, it arrived this weekend, sparked by war escalation and an overblown panic over the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

In the process, we saw around $1b worth of liquidations accompanied by banger memes. Just another weekend at our favorite mental institute, CT.

Now, things feel noticeably calmer. Oil looks stable (despite every retail warrior on X, including Andrew Tate, calling for a giga-pump at the open), and even gold isn’t moving much, suggesting the situation might not be as bad as it looks. At least for now.

Also, Polymarket is currently pricing around 97% odds for the US to meet with Iran before July. On top of that, we’ve got rumours about the Fed cutting rates as soon as the next July FOMC meeting.

So, while there’s still a possibility for escalation, there’s also a high chance of this thing calming down, which could send us higher. Nevertheless, watch S&P 500 from here. It wouldn’t be the last time it pumped on Monday open, only to retrace for the remainder of the week.

Bulls want to see a solid closure above $104k for BTC, at minimum. Above $106.5k, we can start getting excited again. On the other hand, if there are daily closes back below $100k, we can definitely expect as low as the nineties next.

✍️ Advertise with us | 🧑‍💻 Join the Discord | 🐥 Follow on Twitter
📊 Sub to YouTube & Spotify

👇 And if you haven’t yet, hit subscribe below 👇

The important bits.

• Newton announces the Kaito rewards plan for 0.9% of NEWT supply, more details here

• OpenServ joined blocmates on today’s podcast, listen here

• Fuel’s ecosystem sees massive growth, 75 builder teams joined, read here

• Fuel launches Rig liquid staking, join and stake FUEL here

• Altitude offers double-digit yield on BTC, join the vault here

• Tari explains how it designs an exponentially better protocol, listen here

• Mira Network starts 7th Weekly Quest of Voice of the Realm, get rewarded here

• GenLayer announces pre-mainnet GenLayer Grants Program, join here

• LiquidLaunch integrated Liminal Finance on HyperEVM, details here

• Euler integrates first weETH lending on Avalanche, read more here

• Pear Protocol launches on HyperEVM, join open beta here

• FXN Protocol partners with Liquity, read more here

• Valantis Labs teases Kinetiq partnership and early access, more info here

Even more important bits.

• Analysts now peg the odds of spot ETFs for XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano at 90%

• Visa explains their strategy following the GENIUS stablecoin act

• Iran’s Energy Agency says the nuclear program is quickly being rebuilt

• Central Asia’s first Solana Economic Zone launches in Kazakhstan

• Kraken relocates HQ to Wyoming, citing the state’s pro-crypto laws

Charts and stats of the day.

• Polymarket users predict an 89% chance the stablecoin bill will pass in 2025

• Pokemon cards are continuing their bull run

• Israel’s stock market hits ATH

• Circle is up 675% in 15 days

• Strategy has acquired 245 BTC for ~$26.0 million at ~$105,856 per bitcoin

StalkChain spots the next big meme coins early by tracking top wallets and smart money moves in real-time.

See what whales are buying, follow top-performing traders, and analyze token trends before the crowd.

PS: Use code BLOCMATES for 20% off, but shhhh it's our little secret.

BTCUSD Coinbase 12H Ichimoku Cloud

I shorted BTC from $105k and closed last night at $98k, which was a nice win. Right here, I’m hesitant to jump back in on the long side. On the 12H chart, we are in the cloud, which is your chop zone, and we have not tagged the bottom of the cloud yet (your standard edge to edge trade completion). That said, we may well get bullish momentum based on the big macro week, war de-escalation, or any number of other news catalysts.

I will stay out of trades until we get less choppy PA. The green line shows what I would want to see to get bullish - up and out of the cloud, reclaim the white line (PoC) resistance as support. The purple box is where we are headed if bulls do not regain control.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

HyperEVM farming for concentrated LP enjoyers.

Here’s a pretty easy route to farming two airdrops and maintaining constant wallet activity on HyperEVM in preparation for the possible next HYPE stimmy check.

Hybra Finance is where we start and deploy into the new V3 pools. Currently, you have a 100% early adopter bonus available, plus 50% on top for the next 48 hours.

Since these are V3 pools, you will likely need to rebalance your positions occasionally.

This is when we head to the newly deployed HyperBloom aggregator, which provides very deep liquidity.

Provide LP, get points (very early right now, only around $1m TVL), and use an aggregator that is still in the pre-points phase but will give you a retroactive bonus. That’s a good deal to me.

• Babylon (Earn yield with BTC)

• Ethereal (Perpetual trading) - Join public testnet here

To save you doom scrolling.

This pretty much summarizes it. Thank you, mister president.

While today’s pumpbacks seem bullish, it’s entirely possible to see a huge chop continuation for the whole summer. One or two weeks up followed by the same on the downside is a typical summer price action, and we should be prepared for it.

Let’s see if the possibility of a July rate cut changes things; otherwise, all eyes on Q4.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡