👀 Slow Summer Ahead? Here's What Global Liquidity Says:

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GM, I’m tired, boss.

BTC is still stuck in this ultra-boring range between ~$106–108k and ~$103–100k. The longer this goes on without a proper green dildo breakout, the higher the odds we’re heading into a slow, sleepy summer.

Unfortunately, this outlook is reinforced by the latest global liquidity outlook by Michael Howell (shared in blocmates Meal Deal channel). There’s no chart-based reason to expect absolute doom, but sideways chop is now quite likely.

Of course, that can all change fast if BTC blasts above $108k—or ETH clears $2,900. One can dream.

Yesterday’s Powell show didn’t help, as 7 out of 19 members predict zero rate cuts for the rest of 2025.

On the bright side, there have been no more rockets flying between Iran and Israel since yesterday. If there is a chance for a sharp repricing upwards, it would be on the back of de-escalation.

Nevertheless, the long-term outlook is still bullish. Bitcoin now has a lot of room for error and can easily print a weekly lower high, even much lower from here.

Meanwhile, we’ve got Etherealize relentlessly shilling ETH (along with Vitalik), Trump is bullposting the stablecoin bill, the Genius Act, and even if the war breaks out (more likely not in my opinion), it would historically be bullish for the market.

Simply put, there’s still short-term hope for the market, a medium-term neutral outlook, and long-term it’s undoubtedly a bullish one. We simply have to survive.

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The important bits.

• Ionet’s Total Network Earnings (TNE) is live on-chain, learn more here

• GenLayer’s testnet Asimov is now live, test it out here

• Giza featured in blocmates interview, watch it here

• Sophon explains how it rewards digital economy users, watch here

• Newton’s token NEWT is launching next week, more info here

• Mira Network Weekly Quests 5 are now live, get rewarded here

• Fomo PnL cards are now live, join and trade here

• INFINIT lets you cut through research, plan trading strategy, learn more here

• Altitude hits $1 million in BTC & ETH secured in our new public vaults, full stats here

• Hyperliquid Core Writer Contract is in its final test stages, more info here

• FXN sees another $5m increase in fxSAVE stablecoin market cap, stats here

• Dinero publishes a new dashboard to watch buybacks, see here

• MUX Protocol integrated with Gains Network, learn more here

• Ethena partners with infiniFi, learn more here

Even more important bits.

• The Swiss National Bank just cut interest rates by 25 bps to 0%

• Jump Crypto reintroduced itself and aims to lead the future of decentralized infrastructure

• Polygon’s zkEVM team spun off into a new zk project called ZisK

• X CEO confirmed that users will be able to make trades on X

• Coinbase introduces Coinbase Payments for commercial businesses

• Nasdaq-listed Lion Group Holding secures $600M facility to launch HYPE treasury

• Treasury Secretary Bessent is shilling stablecoins again

Charts and stats of the day.

• Aerodrome swap fees keeps trending up again hitting $3.7M in rewards

• Crypto lenders now hold nearly $60B in assets as a new wave of DeFi adoption

• Visa & Mastercard dropped ~5% after Amazon & others are looking at stablecoins

• Small Caps are now underperforming Mega Cap Stocks by the largest margin in history

• Circle’s stock is now 10x after its IPO

StalkChain spots the next big meme coins early by tracking top wallets and smart money moves in real-time.

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BTCUSD 1D Coinbase Ichimoku Cloud

The Bitcoin uptrend looks cooked for now. Granted, today is a low liquidity holiday in the US, but loss of momentum has been the theme since Wednesday last week when we made the lower high at $110k.

A tap of the kijun (red line) is the next logical place to look to, if we continue to lose this $104,500 support ledge (white line). If and when we get down to $99k, price could easily wick lower to the main volume node support at $96k. That area would likely be a great long entry. Watch for the reaction between the kijun and $96k support to confirm.

Here’s a great, longer-term outlook from Trader Magus on Twitter.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Solana smart-money movements show a nice comeback of Launchcoin interest.

Ethereum smart-money movements have plenty of new names to research today, while OG coins are seeing outflows.

2 new Hyperliquid EVM farming opportunities.

Since a lot of you finished farming Kittenswap and HyperSwap already, let’s check out two new DEXs to be early on.

Both of these are still under $1m total value locked. We might get a nice payout if they both hold up to the Hyperliquid ethos and airdrop over 35% of the supply to early users.

WARNING: Both of these projects are VERY new. Smart-contract risk is real. This is not financial advice. Join at your own risk.

• Gliquid

• Hybra Finance

• Euphoria (MegaETH real-time options)

• RAAC (Curve ecosystem, DeFi)

• RateX (DeFi, Bitcoin yield) - Point season started

• Going to ZERO (Berachain)

• Hop Network (MegaETH VPN service)

To save you doom scrolling.

Where can I get this??

Considering today’s market commentary (plus Jim Cramer saying this), I would rather be a bit more careful here.

Seasonality combined with the fact that BTC is starting to look more like a distribution now points to a real possibility of a slowdown. Let’s see.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡