🐻 Bear Market? There's Still Hopium:

GM, we back.

Apologies for the silence during what might have been one of the wildest weeks in market memory. Like Trump, who casually claimed he “didn’t even see the market,” I’ve been out of commission, buried under a nasty flu, and too afraid to even peek at the portfolio.

What the hell is happening? First of all, let’s be honest: we are deep in a danger zone. BTC still hasn’t truly violated the $76k level, but it’s possible it will. Nevertheless, there are multiple doses of Hopium here.

For starters, the inflation index shows us that after this week’s cold print, giving the Fed the room to finally start easing either during May or June’s FOMC meetings.

In addition, the global liquidity index is breaking upward after a very long consolidation period. The index reached an all-time high last September and has decreased since then. Bitcoin is lagging compared to this index and M2 money supply but is otherwise closely correlated. If this breakout strengthens, it’s hard to see BTC not following it.

Also, we hear that the US will not have any choice but to pass a budget resolution and raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.  

With the fear and greed index being at historical lows, it’s hard to see at least a relief period not happening, whether it’s from here or May. We’ll see.

Also, looking at the US 10-year yields, it’s easy to expect more softening in language coming from the Trump camp, as we already saw with the 90-day tariff pause this week.

Here’s to hoping. Remember, it’s still very much possible to see more chaos, with BTC reaching the $69k level next and then going into a prolonged consolidation/chop period.

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The important bits.

• DESK announces a DeFi Gladiator reward campaign, join here

• Mode launches “Mode Trade”, An AI-powered perp exchange

• Yeet announces "Optimization of Berachain's Proof-of-Liquidity Incentives in Adversarial Environments"

• Superseed announces the “Superseed Tesla Contest”

• Ionet announces partnership with Theoriq for powering AI swarms

• Maia DAO announces major intent updates for their DeFi products

• Dinero, the fastest-growing LST, reached a 90,000 ETH TVL

• Cosmos announces important updates, “being reborn”

Even more important bits.

• China raises tariffs to 125%, says it won’t go further

• Scott Bessent announces focus on regulatory challenges for blockchain

• Fed says the “current tariff regime is much higher than expected”

• European Union pauses tariffs on US goods for 90 days

• President Trump requests the Supreme Court allow him to fire Jerome Powell

• Trump's Director of Digital Assets says they are ushering in a "golden age" for crypto

• VanEck confirms that China and Russia are settling some energy trades in Bitcoin

Charts and stats of the day.

• Hyperliquid is the number one protocol by fees

• Chinese yuan falls to lowest level in 18 years

• Inflation in the US is now down 60 basis points in 3 months

Crypto taxes? Absolute pain.

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BTCUSD 3D Index, Log Chart

Times are tough for risk assets, but BTC looks ready to pop. One caveat: watch out on Sunday and around the US futures open. That has been a frequent pullback/dump window, as traders have likely used BTC as a proxy to be short risk assets into the Monday US open. Fingers crossed that any short interest adds fuel to a squeeze.

All that said, this is a bullish chart. Strong buyback on that current candle’s wick under the monthly open (red M). Price is compressing under the downtrend line. A bull div on the 3D RSI and the RSI downtrend breaking. The technical setup cannot be ignored, regardless of the mess in the US markets. There’s also a ramping probability that Fed liquidity may arrive soon. The time is now for BTC to show that it is correlated to global liquidity with the much-touted 13-week lag.

Invalidation on this: I will stop myself out if the weekly candle is red.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

Once again, smart-money wallets on Solana are favoring the one and only, Fartcoin.

Smart-money movements on Ethereum are showing interest in PROMPT, a new AI project that caught a huge buzz with its latest airdrop.

3 HyperEVM protocols to put focus on now.

Let’s check on three freshly launched HyperEVM protocols to focus our farming strategy on.

• Felix Protocol

Felix was already mentioned in our HyperEVM airdrop farming guide, but you might have noticed it hasn’t been fully launched yet. Well, now it is, and TVL quickly made it the number one HyperEVM protocol.

This one is not to be missed; check it out here.

• Hyperlend

Hyperlend is constantly raising its deposit caps and is more available than before. Personally, I’m multiplying my point farm by owning a Hypio NFT, which boosts your points by 10%.

Join Hyperlend here.

• Valantis

Valantis is brand new and has a $2 m TVL. It's definitely an interesting one to play around with since the competition for points is very low for now.

To save you doom scrolling.

Here’s a new meme trading strategy for you, perfect hit rate so far.

These times are definitely the hardest since 2022. If you’re still standing, you can be proud.

From here on out, it’s simply a matter of survival and accumulating the strongest assets. For me, that’s definitely HYPE. You do you, though. Good luck!

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡