🧐 Everyone's De-risking. Would be Shame if...

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GM, we’re starting off bloody.

It’s here—literally the Biggest Week of our lifetime (again). A lot of emotion and volatility are already present, and will likely stay with us for the foreseeable future. Let’s break it down in a calm manner.

First of all, here are the key event points for the week. The critical one is, as you surely know, the FOMC show on Wednesday. I’d say there won’t be any surprises, and the official odds will hit true at a 25bps rate cut.

Let’s take it from the top: long term, when the Fed cuts within 2% of the S&P 500 all-time high, the market response is historically bullish. Moreover, three more cuts are expected for this year, which will undoubtedly serve as a favorable tailwind for risk assets.

In the short term, there’s a widespread discussion about de-risking into FOMC, backed by open interest data, with altcoin’s OI crossing BTC’s OI, as seen here. I think things won’t be so easy to gauge. For example, read here how the situation differs this time from previous data points.

While I do think we’re likely to see lower prices within 30 days post-FOMC, I’m not convinced this week is already the bearish one. There just might be some juice left to squeeze, especially if the market sells off going into Wednesday’s event.

What’s for sure is that it’s time to take our hands off the lever. Many bodies will be carried out before the week is over.

Lastly, here's the BTC price level map. In the very short term, BTC needs to hold $114.8k to maintain its immediate bullish momentum. $116k will lead to $117 and above, while closing below $114.8k likely leads to $113k. All bullishness goes aside for a while if $112k breaks.

Good luck and see you tomorrow.

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The important bits.

• INFINIT offers automated HyperEVM airdrop farming, try it here

• Jumper reached $400m in weekly swaps, read here 

• Plasma’s XPL is now listed on EdgeX, trade here

• Stargate Finance explains what changes after Layer Zero acquisition, listen here

• Polkadot to tighten tokenomics by capping DOT supply at 2.1 billion, read here

• Based terminal announces support for HyperEVM, read here

• Magic Eden announces pivot to sports betting, read here

• Ethena’s ENA price is lagging behind TVL growth, chart here

• PumpFun flipped Rumble in the number of concurrent streams, read here

• Polymarket raising $3B at valuations up to $10B, read here

• Collector Crypt hit $1.62 million in daily revenue, outpacing Axiom, read here

Even more important bits.

• Hyperliquid validators have chosen Native Markets to issue USDH, read here  

• London Stock Exchange Group has launched its Digital Markets Infrastructure, read more

• Ethereum declares privacy a human right in bold new roadmap, read here

• Japan slashed BTC taxes to 20%, read here

• Robotic meta explained in a new blocmates article, read here

Charts and stats of the day.

• Unit 24-hour spot BTC volumes of 704M have now surpassed Bybit, chart here

• U.S. Banks are now sitting on $395 billion in unrealized losses, charted here

• The ETH Exit Queue spiked to 2.6M ETH, chart here

• The Altcoin Season Index just hit 82, chart here

• The Strategic Solana Reserve now holds 11.7M SOL worth $2.85B, read here

• PumpFun’s 24h revenue hit $3M for the first time since February, chart here

• PumpFun surpassed Hyperliquid in daily revenue, read here

Don’t miss out on the daily blocmates news bulletin with Gaz! Tune in here. 

Become your own bank.

ether.fi Cash is the real-world spending product we DeFi natives have been waiting for for so long.

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Memecoins in the lead.

Memes are here to stay. As long as the bull market continues, these attention vehicles will always attract liquidity.

On the other hand, when the market turns, memecoins lead the downturn. It’s a double-edged sword; be careful.

Telemetry data of the day.

PumpFun + Heaven + Bonk trending tokens for the last 24h:

If you want to access more of this type of data and trade freshly graduated tokens on PumpFun of Bonk, visit Telemetry here (it`s free).

Bonk comeback: loading.

PumpFun is completely dominating the launchpad space and will likely keep doing so. I mean, this chart speaks volumes, literally.

Nevertheless, we all know there's an inevitable counterreaction when something gets far too stretched. In this case, I expect Bonk to have its time in the limelight again. Whether it’s now or during October after the rate cut drama fades, Bonk will slice its share of the launchpad space.

My bet on this comeback is the BONK token and KITTY, a favorite meme of the TROLL whales, currently printing a very nice, long bottom consolidation.

This bet will likely require patience, but I can see it playing out nicely later on.

• Cameo (PumpFun streamer meta)

• Buncoin (PumpFun streamer meta)

• Soar (Launchpad)

To save you doom scrolling.

Read this carefully and remember it next time you’re frantically pushing buttons, chasing new coins.

There we have it. I think the main message to carry forward is not listening to the permabears. Even if we get some post-rate cut fuckery, or even a bearish October, the bull market isn’t over.

Personally, I will continue considering lower prices as opportunities going into Q4 2025, and perhaps even into 2026.

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡