🧐 Stay Bullish at All Costs?

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GM, unfortunately, the costs are getting high.

Many of us woke up looking like this today (yes, clowns), but as always, it’s time to lock in.

To repeat what we said last week: as long as there aren’t any higher timeframe closes under $90k, we’re still stuck in the same range. The observation here: a large portion of market participants aim to deploy at $85k, which basically means we either bottomed here or are going much lower.

Which way, then, young padawan? Well, the direction might actually be decided this upcoming Wednesday. As the market turned back into macro mode lately (the dollar index is mooning, the US Treasury yield is back over 5%, there are fewer rate cuts scheduled for 2025 than expected, etc.), Wednesday’s CPI data carry more weight. Let’s hope the inflation data comes below expectations.

Now, as with everything, there’s a silver lining. Even though the dollar is now really strong (which makes risk assets even more risky), Trump himself says a strong dollar is a problem. Now, look at what happened after Trump’s 2017 inauguration. Yep, DXY topped, and a generational bull market ensued.

Furthermore, since around December, the market has expected Trump’s inauguration to be a sell-the-news event. As we can see, the derisking is happening as we speak, meaning the inauguration might become the exact opposite. There are seven days left.

Also, Trump’s resolve to support crypto in the US right from the beginning of his presidency seems to hold strong. Just today, Trump’s administration announced the formation of a council of 24 leaders to draft legislation, build a Bitcoin reserve, and promote regulatory clarity.

Lastly, retail investors who piled in during the past two months seem to be absolutely flushed by now. As seen in the chart, this usually marks the finality of the market's reset. They will come back, no worries.

Oh, and Cramer is bearish. Whether it’s up, down, or sideways from here, I believe these are just more short-term shenanigans before the market shifts gears into the final bullish phase of this cycle.

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DIGIMON/SOL 1D Raydium

A bullish chart in a bloody market, Digimon just announced Digimon Engine - an AI swarms gaming framework they call ‘Unreal Engine for AI Gaming.’

The GitHub readme and this dev’s full post pack more detail. The first game is in the works, and you can join the waitlist at https://www.damn.fun/.

The price tested the previous high and has pumped from there on high volume. This latest move is correlated with the framework announcement, so maybe we can get some consolidation around this level, which would provide an entry. 

The market cap is still relatively low at $32m. If we see adoption, this could be mid-9 figures in the medium to longer term. AI16Z’s valuation is based mainly on the Eliza framework's success, and their market cap peaked at $2.65bn recently.

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

New Metric, which I call "Fullportedness," shows leading memes.

AI Corner

In a down market, they say you either buy the strongest chart or bid the thing that went down the most. AI16Z is a candidate for the latter, having peaked at $2.42 in the new year. Since then, we’ve seen one green daily candle and 10 red ones. Price was around $0.90c earlier today.

Nothing has fundamentally changed with this project, as far as I can see. It still has gigantic momentum as the go-to open-source web3 agent framework. There’s growing dev support and a constant stream of new plugins being announced, not to mention an imminent tokenomics announcement and an agent launchpad in the works.

Furthermore, Shift AI is a candidate for the strongest chart. It’s early days, and they haven’t released their Github repo yet, but there are plenty of buyers today at a $2m market cap. There was a Spaces yesterday that Gaz recommended, so I’m about to give it a listen.

New content to study.

• Everything is Fine with AI by 0xJeff

• Did the AI bubble burst? By Legendary

• Key Management for Autonomous AI Agents with Crypto Wallets by Ethersearch

• Thinking about Aixbt on a Sunday Night by Shlock

• Introducing AUTOMATE: A TypeScript Framework for DeFAI by HeyAnon

New AI projects.

• Hellcat (AI agents)

• Cluster Labs (Agentic ecosystem)

• jAlhoz.run (AI agent)

The important bits.

• Hyperliquid (L1) - Announces ANIME airdrop for stakers

• Infinex (DeFi) - Partners with Derive

• Solv Protocol (DeFi) - Introducing SolvBTC.BERA for Berachain

• Dinero (DeFi) - Explains Dinero’s institutional Abstraction

• Superseed (L2) - TGE is coming soon

• Hermes (DeFi) - Now joined with Rocket Pool

• Nillion (First blind computer) - Announces the AI agent for DAO governance

• EOS (L1) - GameFi on EOS is expanding

Even more important bits.

• Summary of Bitcoin price action by blocmates

• Solana-based DEX Mangomarkets to shut down today

• MicroStrategy has acquired 2,530 BTC for ~$243 million

• Semler Scientific acquires an additional 237 Bitcoin

Charts and stats of the day.

• AI agents are down $2B since AICC TGE

• S&P 500 is now trading below November 5th levels and has erased -$2.5 TRILLION of market cap in ~4 weeks

• $420,000,000 liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the past 12 hours

• Bitcoin saw $214m in inflows, while Ethereum saw $256m in outflows

Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.

Weekly content round-up.

Research

Catch up on everything we’ve done in the past week!

Read More →

To save you doom scrolling.

Same vibes tbh.

Lastly, next time, we should absolutely NEVER underestimate CZ’s tweets.

I mean….

stay safe homies,

Hix0n 🫡