🤨 The Point of Maximum Financial Opportunity?

🗞 Market commentary.

GM, are you scared?

I won’t pretend I’m not. As of right now, Bitcoin is hovering around a very special place. If we start closing under $60,000, which is a price area we’ve been talking about for what seems like ages now, as long as this area holds (it’s also an important production-cost area for Bitcoin), we should see a return to a range high around $70K. 

It’s important to note here that this time, we’ve got looming warning signs on the TradFi side. For one, the S&P 500 index might print a weekly bearish divergence between the March 25th high and the current high. Key word: might. It isn’t there yet, but watch out for it. Second, Second, Nvidia is in a bubble-like parabolic rise and has already printed a weekly bearish divergence. 

As of this writing, we’ve got fresh Mt. Gox news—Bitcoin repayments are starting in July. So far, Mt. Gox FUD has always been just that—FUD and a sign of a market bottom. Will history repeat?

📊 Luke’s Chart of the Day

BTC/USD Index 1D + Hash Ribbons

Hash Ribbons is a miner capitulation indicator that gives a good medium to long-term $BTC buy signals. Each halving puts stress on miners, and there is almost always a capitulation event that follows. Miners started selling aggressively in line with when the MT Gox coins moved at the end of May. We don’t have a buy signal just yet, but the German government selling and Gox coins have triggered a capitulation event that has gathered steam today. Stay safe out there, be careful with leverage. This is a good environment for DCA and spot accumulation. 

It seems likely we’ll get a test of the 200-day moving average (purple line) at some point in the near future. This is down at the $57k area as of today. Also, notice the yellow support shelf in that area. This all lines up with the bottom of the 1D Ichimoku Cloud (discussed in Discord).

Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!

🔥 Degen corner.

Ethereum, Save us, Ethereum…

Ethereum could be our only salvation in the coming weeks. Mt. Gox won’t be dumping ETH, and the ETH/BTC bottom is holding strong during this brutal selloff.

Moreover, if markets hold these levels and bounce, the possibly upcoming Ethereum spot ETF approval could boost market sentiment. Let’s see what happens during the next eight days.

Lastly, observe the NVDA/ETH chart. As mentioned above, NVDA is already confirming a weekly bear divergence, which adds an element of fear to the current sentiment. However, the last two downtrends for NVDA happened during 2017 and the second half of 2021. Yes, that’s right. Both times NVDA was dumping, there was a roaring altseason in the crypto markets. 

👀 DeFi insights.

The important bits.

• Mozaic (DeFi) - Expands to Base - read

• Arbitrum (L2) - Launched Layer Lear, layer 1 to layer 3 bridge

• EigenLayer (LRT) - Phase 2 claims are now live - read

•  Jupiter (DEX) - Announces proposal to reduce supply - read

• Avantis (DeFi) - Hits capacity on its USDC vaults - read

• Core DAO (BTC DeFi) - Unveils the overhauled developer documentation - read

📰 DeFi news.

Even more important bits.

• Mt. Gox Trustee to initiate Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash repayments in July - read

• Japan: Metaplanet to buy Bitcoin worth 1 billion Yen - read

• Sentiment-O-Meter says it's DeFi o'clock - read

• Coinbase to be custodian for North America's first Solana ETP - read

• Analysis: Is the sell pressure mounting in the Bitcoin market? - read

• India’s FIU imposes $2.2 million penalty on Binance - read

• Australia: first spot Bitcoin ETF goes live on ASX - read

🫠 ICYMI.

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🐥 Tweet of the day.

To save you doom scrolling.

Nothing like a great GCR quote at what seems like the end of days. Thanks, Rugshark.

🦍 And finally…

There's not much to add today except a reminder to keep your cool. Even if you didn’t trade this last market episode perfectly, right now, we are reaching a point of maximum fear and, hence, maximum opportunity. If I know one thing, it’s that panic selling never pays, and death by thousand cuts while trading the chop is a very real phenomenon. Patience over panic.

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