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GM. A word of warning: this article may make you slightly paranoid.
Let’s chill a bit first. BTC remains above $84K, and if it manages to close above this level by the end of the week, we should be able to enjoy a bounce to at least $100K. Again, real fun starts only above $107K, so I would consider a hundred keks retrace as a dead cat bounce.
The issue is that with what’s coming up this week, BTC may struggle to manage these levels. Before we get into that, do you trust the Orange Man? The Trumpster just announced that next year will be the "largest tax refund season of all time”, plus a "warrior dividend," which is a $1,776 stimulus check sent to 1,450,000 US soldiers. Let’s hope some of the warriors can PVP in the trenches as well.
From here, it gets a bit paranoia-inducing, especially for the leveraged and heavily exposed ones.
First of all, the BOJ will likely raise the rates by tomorrow, which would undoubtedly cause a pullback similar to August 2024 due to the carry trade unwind. On the other hand, if BOJ decides to keep rates stable, all is good in the hood, and the spice will flow. I mean liquidity, of course.
The Japanese carry trade is one of the most risk-on/risk-off influencing factors out of all. Big Friday is on the way, so here`s your quick and easy explanation of how it works, plus potential scenarios.
Another negative: the US labor market is basically going to shit, and fast. Actually, fastest since the 2020 Covid crisis.
The paranoia persists with Michael Burry stating that the two instances where households held more stocks than real estate, "the bear market lasted years." I sure hope this dude is properly washed out by now (he had a lot of inaccurate predictions during the past few years, so in my opinion, screw this bera).
And let`s freak you out even more, shall we? The Shiller PE ratio (trackable here) crossed the 40.16 level this week. “In 154 years of recorded market history, this threshold has been breached only three times. The first was December 1999. The second was November 2021. The third is now.”
I don`t want to leave you in a pure state of paranoia about possibly losing everything as soon as tomorrow, so here are some positives:
“For only the 4th time in Bitcoin's history, the RSI of BTC priced in gold has dropped below 30 (deeply oversold). On the previous three occasions, you ask?
- 2015: bear market bottom
- 2018: bear market bottom
- 2022: bear market bottom.” So, you're telling me there’s a chance?
What if all this FUD and paranoia disappear as shorts get screwed and dovish news comes out? Well, it would be the perfect and typical time for this to happen. Simply observe where exactly we are with the Fear Index.
👇 And if you haven’t yet, hit subscribe below 👇
The important bits.
Ready adds another 300 BTC into Ready staking, read here
Zumi X Moonwalk Fitness is live, try it out here
Minting and using U.S. Treasuries in Canton is coming in 2026, read here
Hyper Foundation is proposing a validator vote to formally recognize the Assistance Fund HYPE as burned, read here
ZKSync is now officially recognized by the SEC, read here
Even more important bits.
2 banks in the U.S. that are now starting to settle their transactions in USDC on Solana, read here
Presentation of Coinbase-powered Solana DEX at Breakpoint, watch here
President Trump has officially ended the Biden administration's war on the cryptocurrency industry, read here
The SEC released a statement on broker-dealer custody of crypto asset securities., read here
Coinbase partners with Kalshi to launch prediction markets, read here
Charts and stats of the day.
HyperEVM led stablecoin supply inflows over the past 24 hours, read here
Memecoins have been losing market share in the altcoin sector for months, read here
edgeX and Lighter are the two DEXs with the highest wash trading ratios, stats here
Ethereum supply on exchanges falls to its lowest levels since 2016, chart here
Crude Oil prices are on a 5th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak in 10 years, chart here
Hyperliquid sees daily netflow in -$200M, chart here
Bitcoin institutional demand now exceeds daily new issuance for the first time since early November, chart here
Today’s bulletin: ¨
Learn how to spin up prediction markets on XOMarket:
Summary of the best MetaDAO projects:
Telemetry data of the day.
Top trending tokens for the last 24h:
If you want to access more of this type of data and trade freshly graduated tokens on PumpFun or Bonk, visit Telemetry here (it’s free).
Kintsu: The Great Monad Point Season Arrives!
Our past readers are already well-prepared for the massive Kintsu point program on Monad. Now, it`s time to dive a bit deeper and learn how to earn THE most points possible.
The tweet above covers the basics: you can simply connect to Kintsu here, choose the staking option (currently offering an almost 14% APY), and start using your sMON.
Here`s exactly how to start earning points easily:
Jump here into the earn section,
Select your preferred protocol (many options available).
Choose between 2x up to 10x multiplier (this one is a banger, but only for fast ones)
So, I think it's wise to expect the attention generated by a 10x multiplier this week from Curvance to be massive for sMON holders.
If you want to earn 10x points, you have to be fast:
Get your WMON on Uniswap
Go to the Curvance Deposit page
Stake, enjoy points!
Lastly, if you want even MORE points, don`t forget to create your own referral link:
Snow Lens (Unifies fragmented liquidity, provides analytics from every platform)
Oh, we`re actually fucked, aren’t we? Please, Jimmy, stay quiet for like a year.
Paranoia is hitting strong before the Big Japanese Friday. But then again, what if nothing ever happens?
It's a hit-or-miss market at the moment, so for me personally, I’m just waiting to see what happens, avoiding any overly aggressive trades.
Hix0n 🫡
